Antonelli’s rookie season and what it means for his future at Mercedes
- Charlotte Mui
- Sep 15
- 6 min read
Kimi Antonelli’s meteoric rise through the junior ladder made him one of the most talked-about young drivers in motorsport, with many having labelled him as a generational talent and a future world champion.
His domination in karting earned him a spot on the Mercedes junior program in 2019, and he quickly justified their investment. His talent seamlessly translated over into the single-seater categories, as he won both the Italian and German Formula 4 series as a rookie before claiming the FRECA title the following season.
Such rapid progress convinced Mercedes to make the bold decision of promoting Antonelli directly into Formula 2, bypassing Formula 3 altogether. It was clear, then, that Mercedes saw the young Italian not just as another prospect but as their driver of the future.
However, before the F2 season could even begin, shocking news dropped: Lewis Hamilton would be departing Mercedes for Ferrari, leaving one of the most coveted seats in Formula One open.
As a result, speculation grew over who might replace the seven-time world champion, with names such as Carlos Sainz, Alex Albon and even Max Verstappen thrown in the mix.
Yet, in Monza, Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff announced that it would not be an established driver taking the seat, but Antonelli himself — a teenager yet to complete a full season of F2. This decision showed Wolff’s firm belief in Antonelli’s potential, sparking both excitement and skepticism.
On one hand, people were thrilled that a top team was taking such a huge risk by signing a young and inexperienced driver. On the other hand, some thought it was a mistake to put the teenager under the pressure of fighting at the front so early.
With eight races left in the 2025 season and contract talks in the air, now is the perfect moment to evaluate Antonelli’s rookie season at Mercedes and what may lie ahead for the young Italian.
A promising start
Despite the noise, Antonelli’s season started strong in Australia. After a rocky first qualifying, the Italian proved his quality by surviving the treacherous racing conditions that took out both veteran and rookie drivers. After starting at the back, he clawed his way to fourth, finishing right behind his teammate George Russell.
This performance had fans and pundits raving about his wet weather abilities and praising Mercedes for their gamble. His calmness under pressure stood out, particularly given that every other rookie bar Bearman (who finished last) failed to make it to the chequered flag. It was the sort of debut that instantly validated the hype.
Antonelli followed up with solid performances in China, Japan and Saudi Arabia, finishing a respectable sixth each time. Although they weren’t the flashiest of performances, he was showing consistency and maturity behind the wheel, slowly adapting to the demanding nature of F1.
Miami provided the next spark. In the Sprint Shootout, Antonelli impressed everyone by taking pole position, becoming the youngest driver in F1 history to do so. This result was a reminder of exactly why Mercedes were so eager to fast-track him into their car.
However, the next run of races brought some setbacks. Mechanical issues in Imola and Barcelona, along with a crash in Monaco qualifying saw him out of the points for three consecutive races. His momentum appeared to stall.
Fortunately, in Canada, the Mercedes package was strong. While Russell took the win, Antonelli was able to secure third ahead of championship-leader Oscar Piastri’s McLaren, finishing on the podium for the first time in his career. With this result, he became the third-youngest podium finisher in F1 history.
Over the first 10 races, Antonelli seemed to be settling into F1 nicely. Though mostly finishing behind Russell, his raw pace indicated that the gap was smaller than the results made it seem. He had delivered consistent performances, showed flashes of brilliance, and with a podium under his belt, looked poised to continue improving.
A sudden dip in form
The Canadian podium, however, proved a false dawn, as Antonelli’s form took a large dip in the following races.
In Austria the next weekend, Antonelli made an over-aggressive move in the opening lap, crashing into Verstappen and taking them both out of the race. In Silverstone, tricky conditions hampered vision, leading Isack Hadjar to crash into his rear, causing another DNF. Spa was no better, as a poor qualifying saw him start in the pitlane for the main race and finish sixteenth.
His first points-finish since Canada would come at Hungary, but even there, he was only able to secure a singular point after violating track limits in qualifying forced him to start in fifteenth.
The summer break could not have come at a better time for the young Italian, who looked in desperate need of a reset.
Yet, the return in Zandvoort did not go to plan. Qualifying in eleventh put him on the back foot, and though he recovered to sixth in the race, he then received two penalties following a collision with Charles Leclerc, which demoted him back down to sixteenth.
At his home race in Monza, he fared a little bit better finishing in ninth, but still received a penalty for forcing Alex Albon off-track.
The mistakes were clearly piling up and questions about his abilities were growing louder. Was it a mistake for Mercedes to put him under the spotlight so soon? Was Antonelli really as good as his junior resume suggested?
Russell’s season
It’s not helping Antonelli’s case that, on the other side of the garage, Russell is having perhaps his best season to date in F1.
The British driver has long been considered one of the quickest on the grid, but in the past, his speed has sometimes been overshadowed by his mistakes. His last-lap crash in Singapore back in 2023 still lingers in memory as an extremely costly lapse of judgement under a high pressure situation. Similarly, his mistakes in Canada last year cost him a potential win, igniting doubts about his ability to be a team leader at Mercedes.
In 2025, however, Russell seems to have put it all together. Combining his raw pace with newfound consistency, he has secured seven podiums this year, including the aforementioned victory in Canada. He and Verstappen remain the only two non-McLaren Grand Prix winners this year. His progress has been evident, and he’s looking every bit the team leader Mercedes needs.
For Antonelli, Russell’s success has only amplified his own struggles. And while the Brit provides a strong benchmark for Antonelli to learn from, the gulf between them has made Antonelli’s mistakes and lack of experience more glaring. The 18-year-old has yet to finish a single race ahead of Russell, something he will be hoping to rectify in the remaining eight races.
The Verstappen factor
If Antonelli’s immediate comparison to Russell wasn’t difficult enough, Verstappen’s deteriorating relationship with Red Bull put even more pressure on the young driver’s shoulders.
Earlier in the year, rumours were swirling around the possibility of Verstappen joining Mercedes in 2026, as the Red Bull car looked increasingly difficult to handle. Although those rumours have been put to rest for now, Toto Wolff has made little secret of his admiration for Verstappen, and his desire to one day bring him over to the Silver Arrows.
While the rumours were mostly surrounding Verstappen taking Russell’s seat, the drop-off in Antonelli’s form puts his place in Mercedes at much greater risk. If Verstappen were to become available, Mercedes would almost certainly explore the possibility — and with Antonelli yet to prove he can consistently deliver at the front, his seat could suddenly look less secure than many first assumed.
Up until recently, most believed Antonelli’s future at Mercedes was safe, given his status as a long-term project and the immense investment the team has put into his development. Yet, F1 is a results-driven sport, and if his struggles persist with Verstappen on the market, the young driver may find his long-term prospects at Mercedes diminishing.
In the final eight races, Antonelli will be looking to recover his form and show the flashes of brilliance he demonstrated earlier in the year, as he seeks to re-establish himself as Mercedes’ future.
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