Is the F1 title dream back on for Verstappen?
- Meghana Sree
- Sep 24
- 4 min read
After securing back-to-back victories and becoming the driver with the highest points tally following the summer break, can Max Verstappen dare to dream of a fifth consecutive title? Here’s how the odds stack up for the defending champion.
Following his claim in early August that he might never win a race again this season, four-time World Champion Max Verstappen went on to record back-to-back wins for the first time this year – both by significant margins.
From storming to victory at a historic race in Monza to cementing his rise from the ashes in the Land of Fire, Verstappen might just have reignited his title hopes while McLaren begin to show cracks under pressure.
Preceding this resurgence, Verstappen was on his longest run of races without a podium finish in six years. Despite ending that undesirable streak on home turf with a hard-fought second place, the gap to the top two of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris still remained unassailable.
His prospects of claiming a fifth consecutive title seemed bleak, and after limping to an uncharacteristic ninth place finish at the following round in Hungary, Verstappen admitted: “In the end, it doesn’t hurt that much now because we’re not really fighting for anything anymore.”
However, given the recent turn of events, it’s clear the Red Bull driver spoke too soon. Subsequent to Piastri’s shocking crash in Azerbaijan and Norris’ uninspiring seventh place finish, Verstappen has sliced his previously near 100-point deficit to 44 points behind second place and 69 points to the championship leader Piastri.
But with only seven rounds to go, has it become too late for Verstappen to begin dreaming again?
While McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella maintains that the Dutchman is a credible threat to the title, there still remain several elements to factor in if Verstappen is to jolt his title hopes back to life.
Even if McLaren continue to self-sabotage their title campaigns, as seen in Azerbaijan where they failed to easily seal the Constructors’ Championship following Piastri and Norris’ nightmare weekends, Verstappen would require a miraculous heap of luck to overturn Piastri’s lead.
Red Bull’s performance in Monza was an unexpected turnaround for the team, but Baku was the true show of performance with Yuki Tsunoda also finishing with lofty points – signalling that something has clicked for the Milton Keynes outfit after being bogged down for much of the year.
Yet it can also be argued that Monza and Baku were more favourable to Red Bull’s low-downforce set-up. Introducing a new floor in Monza helped the team provide Verstappen with a more balanced car, which, combined with the slim rear wing gave the Dutchman a chance to regain momentum.
But whether their performance really has made an all-round leap remains to be seen. The pending venues will pose different challenges altogether as we head to more high-downforce tracks in warmer environments. To this effect, the upcoming round at Singapore, known as one of Verstappen’s only Achilles heels, will be the definitive litmus test for his title dream.
However, regardless of whether his current purple patch is a flash in the pan or a sign of true return to form, Verstappen arguably remains too far back to take the fight to Piastri.
It’s safe to say that Baku was an outlier for the usually unflappable Australian. His Lap 1 crash after a jump start capped a scrappy weekend, but the championship leader’s typical consistency is sure to make a defiant comeback with the title at stake – a level of performance that saw him record the second longest points-scoring streak in Formula One history that ended in Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, a more realistic target for Verstappen would be stealing second place from Norris. Having outscored Norris at every round since the summer break, and now just 44 points behind the Briton, a consolatory second place in the championship is rapidly shaping up to be an achievable target for Verstappen.
Another chance for the defending champion to make inroads would be if McLaren caves in to the external pressure and their ‘papaya rules’ result in hostility between Piastri and Norris.
So far without the immediate threat of championship rivals, McLaren has had the luxury of micromanaging the title fight between their drivers without incurring any losses in their Constructors’ lead. Piastri and Norris were more often than not willing to acquiesce to the team’s whims, Monza being a striking example.
But with Verstappen now closing in and the Constructors’ all but formally recognised, there remains a possibility that Piastri and Norris will take matters into their own hands, inviting fierce competition and potential race-ending clashes.
If Verstappen can pick up the pieces and capitalise on a likely internal fallout from McLaren, the title can quickly come within grasp once more.
However, prospects and permutations aside, realistically the title remains a big ask from Verstappen, despite being a driver known to defy all odds and shatter records.
The Dutchman put it succinctly: "Basically everything needs to go perfectly from my side, and then a bit of luck from their side I need as well."
While absolute perfection and luck aren't always guaranteed in F1, the sport has seen several miracles in its 75 years.
To give his loyal fans a sliver of hope, history shows that third in the standings to World Champion this late in the season is not impossible, with Kimi Räikkönen dramatically clinching the cup for Ferrari at the final race of the 2007 F1 season.
If Verstappen can pull a similar feat out of the bag, in a season of outright dominance from McLaren who currently lead the Constructors’ Championship with 623 points, then he will no doubt silence any remaining naysayers who still question his legend-status in the sport.
As long as it is mathematically possible, Verstappen has proven that he can never be counted out of any fight for glory.
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