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Aaron Carroll

What if Max Verstappen retired in 2021? - Part I

Written by Aaron Carroll, Edited by Tarun Suresh


Credit: Red Bull Content Pool

Max Verstappen and Red Bull had two of the most dominant seasons in Formula One history in 2022 and 2023. But, what if Verstappen retired after his first championship in 2021? 


DISCLAIMER: This article is just a fun experiment and is not meant to be taken as fact, opinion or any form of hate towards Max and Red Bull. 


For this experiment, we’re going off the basis that Red Bull didn’t replace Verstappen. We used the official Formula One results for each Grand Prix and shuffled each driver up one position if Verstappen was present on the results sheet. 


For example; If a race finished with the result; first Ver, second Lec, third Ham, and fourth Per. Our result for this experiment would be first Leclerc, second Hamilton and third Perez. 


Now moving on to the actual results, who stands out in a Formula One world without Max Verstappen? 


We head into Pre-Season testing at Bahrain where the paddock is buzzing with chat about the Dutchman not coming back to defend his title, and who can step up with the new regulations and porpoising. 


Round One of the 2022 Formula One season comes around quite quickly, and in qualifying Ferrari’s duo of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz lock out the front row ahead of Red Bull’s sole driver, Perez. Mercedes Hamilton and Russell find themselves somewhat off the pace in fourth and ninth in the standings. Is this the beginning of the end for the Brackley-based team?


After a thrilling race, Leclerc and Sainz took home a 1-2 for Ferrari with the two Mercedes boys in third and fourth, in an unchanged result from real life due to reliability issues for both Red Bulls. 


Ferrari continued their strong form in Rounds two and three, with another 1-2 in the Saudi-Arabian Grand Prix and Leclerc winning in Melbourne, despite a disappointing lap one DNF for Carlos Sainz. 


Charles Leclerc looks set to dominate the season with maximum points from each of the first three rounds, taking the win and fastest lap in each. However, behind him, it's an all-out fight for second in the championship. George Russell in the Mercedes sits 39 points off Leclerc in second after finishing third or fourth in each race so far showing that consistency is key. Behind Russell are Sainz, Perez and Hamilton, the four drivers separated by just 10 points. 


Next up was Imola, Ferrari’s first of two Grand Prix on home soil. Despite the favour of the home crowd, however, the prancing horses failed to deliver. Another lap one DNF for Carlos Sainz and a disappointing P5 for Leclerc. Picking up the pieces was Sergio Perez who took P1, from Lando Norris in the McLaren in P2 and George Russell in P3. 


Credit: Scuderia Ferrari

It was back to business as usual for Ferrari in Miami with another 1-2 and a fourth win for Leclerc in five races. Perez was third then the Mercedes’ of Russell and Hamilton in fourth and fifth.  


In the Constructors fight, Ferrari led Mercedes by 78 points, with the sole Red Bull of Perez struggling to keep up. 


Barcelona produced another Perez win from Russell, Sainz and Hamilton. Championship leader Charles Leclerc retired from the race with engine reliability issues. The gap between Leclerc and Perez now cut to 43 points. 


Wins from Perez in Monaco and Baku would mean that he would take the championship lead from Charles Leclerc after a third in his home Grand Prix and a very costly double DNF for Ferrari in Azerbaijan. 


So heading into Canada Checo Perez has a 19 point lead over Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who is a further 24 points ahead of George Russell. Leclerc and Ferrari have seemed to be the quicker pairing, but costly mistakes have put them down in the drivers championship battle. 


After a wet quali in Montreal, Fernando Alonso would take pole position, with Carlos Sainz making it an all-Spanish front-row. With Leclerc taking engine penalties, it was Perez's opportunity to grow his lead, but a crash in Q2 hampered those chances. 


Gearbox issues would strike the Mexican early in the race, while Leclerc worked his way up to fourth, behind the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and Russell in second and third, with Carlos Sainz taking the win and fastest lap. 


With Perez now just seven points ahead in the Drivers Standings, it was all to play for at Silverstone. Carlos Sainz would win again at the British Grand Prix, ahead of Perez and Hamilton, with Leclerc in P4. 


However, with Perez only scoring five points across the weekend of the Austrian Grand Prix (sprint included), and Leclerc scoring a monumental 34, the Monegasque retook the championship lead by 16 points heading into Paul Ricard for the French Grand Prix. 


A Mercedes 1-2 in France, with Sainz fourth and Leclerc crashing out meant Mercedes began to make inroads into Ferrari’s lead in the Constructors championship. Leclerc’s incident also meant that Perez (third) cut Leclerc’s lead to just one point heading to Budapest. 


A second consecutive 1-2 from the Silver Arrows meant the lead in the Constructors title was cut to 22 points. In the Drivers standings, with Perez fourth and Leclerc fifth, this swung the lead the opposite way to Perez leading by a singular point. 


Engine penalties meant that Leclerc would start from 15th on the grid for the Belgian Grand Prix. Whilst he ended up finishing fifth, Perez took the win in the Ardennes, extending his championship lead to 15 points. 


Credit: Scuderia Ferrari

After a second and a win at the Dutch and Italian Grand Prix for Leclerc, and only fourth and fifth for Perez, the Monegasque retook the championship lead by five points heading into a duel under the lights at the Singapore Grand Prix. Four consecutive podiums for Mercedes’ George Russell meant that he too is joining the fight, just 10 points behind Perez, and 15 behind Leclerc. 


Meanwhile, Mercedes were doing just enough to keep the fight with Ferrari for constructors' glory interesting. George Russell’s good run of form, including a win in the Dutch GP, meant that Mercedes outscored Ferrari in that four race stretch by 18 points, the gap down to just 29 points.


However, the Silver Arrows would only score 22 points in the next two races at Singapore and Suzuka, compared to Ferrari’s 51. At this point, it was all Ferrari’s to lose. 


Perez won both races ahead of Charles Leclerc, extending his lead to nine points heading into the final four races of the 2022 season. Interestingly, Esteban Ocon scored himself and Alpine a podium at the shortened Japanese Grand Prix, picking up some valuable points for the team's fight with McLaren. 


Lewis Hamilton would win the next two GPs in the US and Mexico, while Leclerc would be second and fifth, with Perez finishing third and second at his home race. The Championship fight is now 14 points in Perez’s favour heading into the final two rounds. 


Mercedes also had a good two races in North America, with Lewis’ wins alongside a fourth and third (both with fastest laps) from Russell. This meant that the gap in the team's championship sits at just 19 points. 


A lap before the rain came for Kevin Magnussen in qualifying at São Paulo, meant he took pole position for the sprint and Haas’ maiden pole. However, in the Sprint, he would drop to eighth, scoring only one point. A lap one collision put him out of the main Grand Prix, ruining his chances of some points. 


Picking up from Magnussen’s lack of pace in the sprint was George Russell, meaning he would start the main Grand Prix ahead of Carlos Sainz and teammate, Lewis Hamilton. Our two championship contenders would start fourth and fifth, Perez ahead of Leclerc. 


Image Credit - Formula One

Mercedes would crucially pick up a 1-2 finish in the main race, and with Ferrari in third and fourth, the Silver Arrow’s trail the Prancing Horse by just one point heading into the final round in Abu Dhabi. 


Leclerc in fourth and Perez in sixth meant the Driver’s gap was only 11 points, with Perez still leading. Abu Dhabi was sure to be a thriller, with two championship battles coming down to the wire. 


Sergio Perez would take pole on Saturday, with rival Charles Leclerc alongside. Leclerc would need to win with Perez in fourth or lower to secure the title. Behind those two was Carlos Sainz and then the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and Russell. 


In the opening laps, Sainz and Hamilton would battle over crucial points in the constructors’ battle, but eventually, Sainz would pull away from the Briton. With the race heating up and split strategies across the grid, Perez opted for the two-stop, and after his second stop ended up in sixth, with Leclerc in the lead that would be enough to crown the Ferrari driver world champion. 


While Perez battled with Hamilton, disaster struck for Mercedes, Hamilton would have a hydraulic failure causing a retirement, and ruining any chances for Mercedes to claim their ninth consecutive constructors’ title. 


Leclerc would be able to fend off Perez for the win, but it wouldn’t be enough. The Mexican would win the championship by four points to become Mexico’s first-ever Formula One World Champion. Ferrari would also take home their 17th Constructors title after Mercedes dropped out of contention with Hamilton’s retirement. 


Drivers Standings 

1st: Sergio Perez, 369 Points

2nd: Charles Leclerc, 365 Points

3rd: George Russell, 324 Points

4th: Lewis Hamilton, 294 Points

5th: Carlos Sainz, 282 Points

6th: Lando Norris, 152 Points

7th: Esteban Ocon, 123 Points

8th: Fernando Alonso, 104 Points

9th: Valterri Bottas, 66 Points

10th: Sebastian Vettel, 58 Points


Graph showing the WDC fight over the course of the season

Perez and Leclerc were a step above the rest of the field this season, with seven wins each. Hamilton, despite only finishing fourth and behind his teammate, had four wins, with both Russell and Sainz on two. 


Perez led the grid in podiums, with 15. While three drivers tied for the second most on 13 - Leclerc, Russell and Sainz. Hamilton took 11 podiums with Norris and Ocon picking up one trophy each. 


Leclerc dominated qualifying with 13 poles, four more than the rest of the entire grid combined. Sainz had three, Perez and Russell had two each, with Magnussen and Alonso having one apiece. Despite his four wins, there is no sign of Lewis Hamilton on pole position this year. 


Compared to the actual 2022 season, where Max Verstappen won, but Leclerc was still second with Perez third. In that season the fight between Leclerc and Perez also went down to the wire, with Leclerc winning out by three points.  



Constructors Standings

1st: Ferrari, 647 Points

2nd: Mercedes, 618 Points

3rd: Red Bull, 369 Points

4th: Alpine, 227 Points

5th: McLaren, 202 Points

6th: Aston Martin, 87 Points

7th: Alfa Romeo, 76 Points

8th: Haas, 54 Points

9th: Alpha Tauri, 52 Points

10th: Williams, 16 Points


Graph showing the WCC fight over the course of the season

Ferrari took the most wins (nine), podiums (26) and poles (16) this season. Red Bull, which was of course run solely by Perez, had seven wins, ahead of Mercedes' six. 


Outside of Red Bull dropping from first to third, not much else changed in the team's championship. McLaren and Alpine swapped places, as did Aston Martin and Alfa Romeo. 


It was interesting to see how competitive the 2022 season was outside of Verstappen’s utter dominance, even though that is a massive feat in itself. It leaves us wondering, who would win out in 2023 without Max Verstappen?


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