Five storylines ahead of NASCAR’s 'The Chase'

Richmond Raceway Cookout 400 | Credit: Bella Rosen

As the clock ticks down to NASCAR’s final regular season race Saturday night in Daytona, the biggest question is who will take the next step into The Chase and ultimately toward the championship.

Five drivers remain a possibility for the final three spots in the 16-driver Chase field, while those who have already secured their place still have plenty to fight for in the standings.

Add a new superspeedway package and potential record finishes, and the Coke Zero Sugar 400 carries no shortage of storylines into the final phase of the 2026 season.

Denny Hamlin: Is this the year?

Denny Hamlin has put together one of the most consistent seasons in the Cup Series, and he will enter The Chase as the No.1 seed.

Hamlin clinched the regular season championship and the top Chase position with his seventh-place finish at New Hampshire. He will begin the championship stretch with 2,100 points, giving him a 25-point advantage over the No.2 seed.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has earned four wins, 14 top-five finishes and avoided a DNF throughout the season. He also enters Daytona with a 77-point lead over Ryan Blaney in the regular season standings. Although that gap will not carry directly into The Chase, it still holds meaning for the Virginia-born driver.

Hamlin’s recent stretch has been equally impressive. His seventh-place finish at New Hampshire marked his sixth result of seventh or better in the previous seven races, while a three-race winning streak at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono further separated him from the field.

The challenge now is turning that regular season success into the championship that has so far remained absent from his resume. Hamlin has placed himself among NASCAR’s leading title contenders, but the postseason hasn’t brought so much success. This year, however, he enters with a high chance to take the title.

Christopher Bell before qualifying at the Cookout 400 | Credit: Bella Rosen

Thirteen drivers have already clinched– but the standings are not yet settled

Thirteen drivers have already clinched their places in The Chase: Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliot, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Carson Hocevar, William Byron, and Daniel Suárez.

Having already clinched a Chase position doesn’t mean Daytona loses importance.

With the new format, the regular season standings directly affect where drivers begin The Chase. The regular season champion starts with 2,100 points, second place with 2,075 and third with 2,065, with five-point gaps continuing through the rest of the 16-driver field.

That leaves several smaller storylines throughout the standings to keep an eye out for Saturday night. 31 points separate Bell in fifth place from Elliot in eighth, while Larson in seventh and Elliot are separated by only one point. The battle in this section could have meaningful results heading into the Chase.

Another close group sits further down the standings, where Logano, Buescher and Hocevar sit within 10 points of one another. Those results could similarly impact their starting positions for the championship run.

Austin Cindric racing in the Richmond Raceway Cookout 400 | Credit: Bella Rosen

Five drivers battle for three remaining Chase spots

The most obvious storyline lies in the three open spots still waiting to be claimed.

Five drivers will start their engines in Daytona vying to claim a spot in the final Chase positions: Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, Shane van Gisbergen, Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski.

Wallace sits 14th in the standings, 75 points above the cutoff, and needs only two points to officially clinch his place. While his position is largely secure, it’s not 100% just yet.

Cindric, who is 15th, holds a 44-point cushion over the cutoff. His recent Daytona finishing record has been inconsistent, but he notably owns a Daytona 500 victory from 2022.

The battle becomes considerably tighter for the final position. 

Van Gisbergen currently holds the 16th and final Chase spot, sitting 31 points ahead of Preece. He also owns the tiebreaker advantage with two wins this season. Still, Daytona has not been a speciality course for SVG.

Preece has more experience at Daytona, with 13 starts and three top-10 finishes, though he has not recorded a top 10 there since 2021. His path also became significantly more difficult after NASCAR’s 25-point penalty earlier this season.

Keselowski, meanwhile, sits 66 points below the line and faces the longest path into The Chase. The likelihood of making it in at this stage is low, but not yet mathematically impossible.

A new aero package brings another unknown to Daytona

Saturday’s race will also provide the first look at NASCAR’s new superspeedway package.

The rear spoiler will be shortened from 7 inches to 4 inches, aiming to reduce drag, while horsepower will drop from 510 to 465 to adjust for the reduced downforce. NASCAR officials predicted single-car runs to be about 3 mph faster than the previous package, while cars in a pack are expected to remain around the same speeds.

The changes were implemented in an effort to give drivers more ability to move through the field rather than becoming too focused on track position and fuel-saving. Under the previous package, drivers who fell back in the pack could struggle to build enough momentum to move forward.

Ideally, the new package will give drivers an opportunity to build runs and make passes. With another superspeedway event still remaining during The Chase, the regular season finale will give NASCAR and its teams a chance to test the changes before any decisions about the rest of the season are confirmed. 

For a weekend like the upcoming one, it will make for interesting results. The effects of the changes are difficult to fully predict before the cars hit the track, but regardless, for drivers fighting around the cutoff line, the unknown will certainly add another interesting variable onto an already high pressure night.

Tyler Reddick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at the NASCAR Cookout 400 | Credit: Bella Rosen

Tyler Reddick searching for a Daytona sweep

Tyler Reddick opened the 2026 season by winning NASCAR’s biggest race. Now, he returns to Daytona with an opportunity to make history.

Reddick earned his first Daytona 500 victory in February in dramatic fashion, making a last-lap pass and leading only the final lap of the race. After a late caution set up a four-lap sprint to the finish, Reddick drove ahead to take the checkered flag.

A victory Saturday night in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 would give him wins in both Daytona Cup races in the same season, a feat no driver has accomplished since Jimmie Johnson in 2013.

The achievement, although existing, is relatively rare in NASCAR history. Before Johnson, Bobby Allison was the most recent driver to complete the Daytona double, doing so in 1982 when the race was known as the Firecracker 400.

Reddick has already clinched his Chase position and currently sits among the leaders in the regular season standings, allowing him to enter Saturday without too much pressure.

However, that doesn’t mean Daytona isn’t significant for the 23XI Racing driver. A second victory at the track in the same season would not only add another accolade to his 2026 season, but also place him alongside a rare group of NASCAR drivers.

As the final regular season approaches, Daytona will determine much more than the final three Chase spots. For one final Saturday night this season, the road to the championship runs through Daytona.

Edited by Tarun Suresh