The tracks ahead: Denny Hamlin’s outlook for The Chase
Denny Hamlin entered NASCAR’s The Chase with a dominant lead and high expectations for what could be his first championship title run. After a solid finish at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in Daytona, the chances seemed to remain in his favour.
But after a quick stumble at Darlington that saw him finish 18th, and his 25-point lead over Christopher Bell cut to just 12, it posed the question: How will he fare as the season continues?
Hamlin has voiced his lack of concern for the rest of the chase, noting that he’s historically done well at all of the final Chase tracks. “All of these Chase tracks we’ve been good at within the last year,” he said, per PRN. “Our notebook should be pretty solid.”
Regardless, anything can happen on track. That’s a fact that comes as no surprise to any sports fan. Either way, success remains a green flag. Here’s a deeper look at Hamlin’s performance at each of the final venues.
Enjoy Illinois 300 - World Wide Technology Raceway
Hamlin has a solid track record at the World Wide Technology Raceway. Last season, he grabbed the win. In the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he earned runner-up finishes.
Despite coming home only ninth, Hamlin left the WWTR with a nine-point advantage after Kyle Larson took victory in the second weekend of The Chase.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race - Bristol Motor Speedway
The iconic Bristol track has similarly been kind to Hamlin. He’s taken the win at this track four times, three of which came from the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Hamlin also sits near the top of drivers with the most wins at Bristol, notably tied at four with Kyle Larson.
Following his 2024 win, Hamlin shouted his praises for the track after his race.
“My favourite racetrack!”
Sure, likely just a statement born from adrenaline and a necessary win. Still, his results don’t lie. And who doesn’t like Bristol?
The Bristol weekend proved particularly poignant for Hamlin, with a 750th start in NASCAR’s premier Cup Series.
Yet, despite the momentous milestone, Hamlin once again lost crucial ground in The Chase to Larson. Finishing only eighth while his rival took a runner-up finish, he now trails Larson by a point, going into the final seven weekends of the season.
Hollywood Casino 400 - Kansas Speedway
But there’s plenty of optimism going into these weekends, for Hamlin has achieved plenty of success at these venues in the past.
Hamlin has taken three Cup Series wins at the Kansas Speedway in 2012, 2019, 2020 and most recently in 2023. In last year's September race, he drove into the runner-up position and took fourth earlier this season in April after a caution, narrowly missing another victory for his resume.
The No.11 car will have several competitors on track alongside him, with several drivers also having experienced success in Kansas, including Kyle Larson with two wins, and Chase Elliot, who’s earned one win and consistently earned top 10 finishes at the track.
South Point 400 - Las Vegas Motor Speedway
You guessed it: Hamlin also has success at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It’s unlikely the leading Cup Series driver would take such a dominant lead throughout the season without harbouring a variety of wins under his belt.
Hamlin has won the two most recent races at Las Vegas, including the Pennzoil 400 in March of this season and the South Point 400 in October of last season. He also won the South Point 400 during the 2021 season. His most recent win in March was actually won following a Stage 2 speeding penalty, demonstrating even more skill at the track.
Hamlin’s biggest competition at this track will likely sit in Joey Logano’s No.22 car. Logano has taken four Cup Series wins in Vegas, as well as a track race record (154.849) set in 2019 and an O’Reilly Auto Parts Series win in 2017.
Bank of America 400 - Charlotte Motor Speedway
Hamlin’s most recent win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway was in 2022 at the Coca-Cola 600.
Prior to that, he took wins in 2016 at the Hisense 4K TV 300 and in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race in 2015. He took third earlier this season after qualifying 11th. Overall, his results vary largely from season to season here.
Freeway Insurance 500 - Phoenix Raceway
On the contrary, Hamlin doesn’t have an especially shining history in Phoenix. At least, not in recent years. His last win at the track was in the fall of 2019, when he took his second win. Hamlin scored his first victory at the venue seven years prior, in 2012.
In his last three appearances in Phoenix, Hamlin has secured top 10 spots, including a runner-up finish in the 2025 season.
Near the end of the 2025 season, Hamlin finished sixth and became the runner-up in the Cup Series championship after a late-stage racing incident. Unsurprisingly, the raceway may not hold the most positive memories for Hamlin.
That being said, this track and this race could offer another opportunity to conquer his failures.
YellWood 500- Talladega Superspeedway
Hamlin has earned two wins at Talladega. His first was earned in 2014 and took him to the postseason for that year. In 2020, he took his second at the YellaWood 500 after several overtime restarts.
In recent years, Hamlin hasn’t earned a world of success, with his best result being a tenth-place finish at the back end of the 2024 season.
As one of the final races before the true season finale in Homestead, this race is likely to be an important one, depending on where he lies in the running at this point in the season.
Xfinity 500 - Martinsville Speedway
Martinsville takes the hurrah of being the penultimate race of the 2026 season. Hamlin’s generally had successful results at this venue, finishing second to Chase Elliot earlier this season. In 2025, he took a win during the Cook Out 400, successfully breaking a 10-year winless streak at the track.
Yet, Hamlin remains the winningest driver at Martinsville, holding six total wins there. His success at the track in years past will ideally lead to a high-place finish come November.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship - Homestead-Miami Speedway
Assuming Hamlin is still in the top bunch, or leading, come Miami, this race will be one of the most important of the entire season.
With last-minute efforts and a finale-inspired environment taking centrestage, Homestead is bound to host excitement and drama regardless of the points standings heading into the weekend.
Hamlin’s most recent win at the track was in 2020; however, he also grabbed the trophy in 2009 and 2013. In both 2024 and 2025, he earned top-five finishes. Overall, this is a track that’s likely to suit Hamlin’s driving and one where he has proven success.
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