What are the F1 title odds ahead of the final two rounds? Our writers have their say
- DIVEBOMB Motorsport
- 39 minutes ago
- 6 min read
Despite a major blow in the standings with McLaren's double Las Vegas DSQ, Lando Norris can secure his maiden Formula One Drivers' title in Qatar— yet Max Verstappen has smelt blood and will be more determined than ever to claim his fifth, while Oscar Piastri still lingers close. Who will come out on top for the 2025 season? Our F1 writers weigh in.
A major twist in the Formula One Drivers' Championship surfaced in Las Vegas, with championship leader Lando Norris and title rival Oscar Piastri disqualified from the Grand Prix: inviting Max Verstappen firmly into mathematical contention for the title.
While the defending champion might be too close for comfort — 24 points behind Norris and tied with Piastri for second on 366 points — the title remains in Norris' hands, with the Briton required to outscore his rivals by just two points in Qatar to seal a maiden world title.
Heading into the final two rounds with a championship poised to swing either way, our writers give their thoughts on who looks the strongest ahead of these title-deciding races.
If anyone can do it, Max Verstappen can — Caitlyn Gordon
After falling behind his teammate during the first half of the season, Norris has found his rhythm in the latter part of the year – and conveniently for the title fight, so has Verstappen. The Dutchman has dealt with many difficulties during his 2025 campaign, from Red Bull’s internal politics boiling over to piloting a car that’s been prone to challenging oversteer.
Verstappen seemed eliminated from the title fight, slipping 104 points behind former championship leader Piastri before the summer break. However, capitalising where McLaren fell short in Italy and Azerbaijan began beckoning some hope for the four-time world champion. But, it wasn’t until the Austin Grand Prix that the thought of Verstappen being a title contender wasn’t a ridiculous idea anymore.
While the weekend in America brought the gap down to only 40 points, Verstappen struggled in Mexico, well into Brazil's qualifying. Unable to keep up the pace with Norris, Verstappen began slipping behind on points. But an incredible wet weather drive from the pit lane in the São Paulo Grand Prix saw Verstappen climb from last on the grid to third, with a difficult but doable gap of 49 points.
The Dutchman showcased his magic once again in Sin City, grabbing the race victory by over 20 seconds. However, the carnage after the race with both of the McLarens being disqualified meant the gap was brought down to 24 points, becoming level with Piastri in the standings on 366 points.
Norris only needs to outscore both of them by two points to wrap the championship up, but the disqualification now minimises the margin of error he can have out in Qatar. Both the final two circuits in the Middle East provide an advantage to McLaren due to the car working best in high-speed corners compared to Red Bull.
However, I think if anyone can overcome such odds it would be Verstappen, and what a way it would be to claim his fifth consecutive championship.
Foot to the floor with Lando Norris — Maham Mir
Norris’ 2025 season has been characterised by soaring highs and debilitating lows but despite everything that has been thrown his way, he currently leads the championship by 24 points.
As championship leader, he’s shown that any criticism from last season has been dealt with. Those who believed he was unable to lead from pole need only to look at his performance in Mexico City. Those who believed that he was unable to qualify well under pressure need only to return to São Paulo where he claimed pole position with only one timed lap.
Despite having four podiums in the first five races, Norris conceded the championship lead to his teammate Piastri after the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. From there, things weren’t quite smooth sailing, even with Verstappen slowly falling away.
After his mechanical DNF in Zandvoort that saw his teammate extend the championship lead to 34 points, their largest points gap of the season, many thought that was one of the final nails in the coffin for his championship bid. Instead of succumbing to the pressure and drowning in the outside noise, Norris silenced anyone who doubted him with a return to the podium in Monza, and has gone to new heights since then with a 58-point swing.
Perhaps the most important part of his season, and why I think he will be this year’s championship winner, is his consistency. Even when he hasn’t won a race or reached the podium, his years of being a midfield driver have reiterated the importance of maximising any points scoring opportunity.
Ahead of the final two races, Norris needs to outscore Verstappen and Piastri by only two points in Qatar to achieve his maiden championship win. With the occasion where he becomes the driver with the most starts for McLaren fast approaching, I predict Norris will be celebrating more than that one milestone very soon.
Who can handle the pressure best? — Jason Sharp
While being ahead by 24 points is clearly the advantage, psychologically, it is always easier to be the hunter than the hunted. This is especially true when the hunter is Verstappen, who has already won four consecutive titles.
In 2007, Kimi Räikkönen came back from 34 points (with the modern system) with two races to go; and in 2010, Sebastian Vettel overcame a 24-point deficit. History shows us that it is absolutely possible, and throwing a sprint race into the mix at Qatar provides another eight available points.
This logic, however, relies on complete perfection from Verstappen (or Piastri) and for things to go wrong for Norris. If the Briton is to win his first world championship, he only needs to outscore Verstappen and Piastri by two points by the end of the Qatar weekend. Failing this, he just needs to stay close to his rivals in Abu Dhabi – cruising home just behind them would still be enough.
The pressure applies to both of the drivers and the McLaren team. The disqualification from Las Vegas will play on their minds – it is to be expected that they will take a more cautious approach. Thankfully, the fast corners of Qatar and Abu Dhabi are more favourable to the McLarens than the Red Bull.
Piastri’s underwhelming form throughout the second half of the season has branded him the least likely contender, and Norris has truly turned his season around, now being able to deliver when he needs to. Subtle changes of approach such as switching his qualifying delta off and eliminating the noise of the outside have made all the difference.
Going into the last two weekends, Verstappen will be in both McLaren drivers’ heads. He has overturned a 104-point deficit, produced sensational drives such as from the pitlane to third in Brazil, and tends to always prevail in wheel-to-wheel combat as we saw at Turn 1 in Las Vegas.
Verstappen is the better driver currently and arguably deserves this title more due to his performance through the adversities – but this is not how motor racing works; and I believe that Norris has already done enough to bring the championship home.
Lando Norris’ maiden world title is within reach — Chloe Buckley
Of the past few rounds, Norris has shown his great promise that everyone talks about. His full weekend performance in Brazil was the clearest example yet: he topped every session, from Practice 1 all the way to the end of the Grand Prix. The champion-level composure and pace on display across that weekend alone was enough to help people believe he can win it all.
Last year was the closest Norris had come to winning the world title, but he ultimately fell behind Verstappen, who claimed his fourth World Drivers’ Championship. From the first race in Australia this season, it instantly looked like Norris was taking the crown. That dominant victory felt like a statement. A reset, a refocus and a signal he was locked in for the upcoming nine month fight.
The difference this season is that he has been more consistent with his results. There were still small errors, to be expected, but overall he has had a calmer approach to his races. He may not have won every race, but always scored enough points to stay at the top of the title conversation.
Despite a rough patch in the middle of the season, falling behind his teammate in the championship, Norris has been able to recuperate. With a 24-point lead, he is in a much stronger position to claim victory.
Verstappen on the other hand has battled his way back into the conversation. Impressive victories in Italy, Azerbaijan, the United States and Brazil helped him increase his chances — however Norris still has the edge.
He might have been disqualified in Las Vegas, which cost him vital points, but Norris has repeatedly shown that he can recover from setbacks, such as the Zandvoort DNF earlier in the season.
Heading into Qatar, the boos will be tuned out as his aim to outscore Piastri and Verstappen will be brought into focus. It increasingly feels like Norris’ moment, where the season finally results in a maiden world title.
