Abu Dhabi title decider: Who can take the F1 Drivers' Championship and how?

Written by Caitlyn Gordon, Edited by Marit Everett

After a year of twists and turns in the 2025 Formula One title campaign, it all comes down to the final race in Abu Dhabi with three drivers within reach of the crown. With 58 laps in the championship showdown, what does each driver need to secure the title? Here are all the permutations ahead of the three-way fight for the 2025 Drivers' Championship.

The title decider goes down to Abu Dhabi between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri | Credit: Formula One

Lando Norris

Due to issues with the car and a lack of performance, Lando Norris trailed behind his teammate at the start of the year. However, he found his rhythm in the latter part of the season, grabbing two race victories while Oscar Piastri faltered, unable to find the pace in his McLaren. 

Norris delivered a dominant victory in Mexico where the Briton took the lead of the championship for the first time since Saudi Arabia in April. Another assured display in Brazil increased his lead to 24-points over Piastri and 49-points over Max Verstappen. 

The Briton had an opportunity to increase his lead in Las Vegas, but a slip up on the opening lap paved the way for Verstappen to claim an incredible victory in Sin City, finishing 20-seconds ahead of Norris.

Lando Norris claiming a dominant victory in Mexico City | Credit: Formula One

Disaster struck post-race after both McLarens were disqualified from the race due to excessive plankwear. Even with the dice rolling in a different way, the title was still firmly within his reach. Norris went into Qatar needing only to secure two points more than both rivals to wrap up the championship; with a sprint race opening up another chance for points, the Briton was in a comfortable place.

The weekend didn’t go his way: finishing third in the Sprint as Piastri took victory, and a botched strategy in the main race left Norris only fourth. Despite the disappointment in the desert, he heads into Abu Dhabi with a 12-point gap lead over Verstappen and 16-point cushion over his teammate. The advantage puts the title within his grasp, all the Briton needs to do is finish third to secure his maiden world championship, marking him a favourite for the title. 

Norris is guaranteed the title if he finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. OR:

Norris finishes	Verstappen finishes	Piastri finishes
4th	2nd or lower	Any position
5th	2nd or lower	Any position
6th	2nd or lower	2nd or lower
7th	3rd or lower	2nd or lower
8th	3rd or lower	2nd or lower
9th	4th or lower	2nd or lower
10th	4th or lower	3rd or lower
11th	4th or lower	3rd or lower

Max Verstappen

Max Verstappen in Qatar | Credit: Formula One

Despite an early-season driver swap, internal politics boiling over, a new team principal and a car that underperformed casting a dark cloud over Red Bull, Verstappen still shined. Although Verstappen’s early season woes left him trailing behind Piastri with a 104-point deficit heading into the summer break, the Red Bull driver came roaring back. 

While it looked like an impossible gap to bridge with a car struggling with understeer and balance, this season has proved one thing, never count out the Dutchman. 

Verstappen returned after the break on form, claiming victory in Italy and Azerbaijan while also on a side-quest in GT3, where he claimed a debut win. The vision of a fifth world championship ultimately became clear in Austin, after sealing a grand slam weekend, and closing the gap to 40 points. 

After a memorable wet-weather drive in Brazil from the pitlane to the podium, navigating the slippery streets of Las Vegas to victory and picking up the pieces after a McLaren blunder in Qatar, Verstappen now sits only 12 points behind Norris.

For Verstappen to tie Michael Schumacher as the only driver to claim five consecutive world championships, the Dutchman needs to finish in first place, with Norris in fourth.

Verstappen finishes	Norris finishes	Piastri finishes
1st	4th or lower	Any position
2nd	8th or lower	3rd or lower
3rd	9th or lower	4th or lower

Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri bounced back in Qatar with a pole position and Sprint victory | Credit: Formula 1

Piastri came into the 2025 season strong, securing six out of the 14 races in the opening half of the season. The Australian comfortably sat at the top of the standings from April to October. 

Odds have shifted against Piastri’s favour since then; after being the favourite for half the season, the Australian struggled with his MCL39. A controversial team call in Imola, two crashes in Baku and a collision with his teammate in Austin provided Norris the opportunity to reel Piastri in and overtake him in the standings. 

However, he found his form once again in Qatar, claiming the sprint victory and pole position at a track where overtaking is scarce put the Australian in a comfortable position. A strategy gamble that went wrong meant he lost the victory and wound up in second, and while it brought the gap down from 24 to 16, a victory would have made Piastri’s job in Abu Dhabi much easier for his title campaign. 

Now in Abu Dhabi, Piastri needs to seal a victory on Sunday with his teammate in fifth or lower for a chance of the championship.

Piastri finishes	Norris finishes	Verstappen finishes
1st	5th or lower	Any position
2nd	10th or lower	4th or lower

A year of unpredictability culminates in a three-way finale, something not seen since 2010. Will a new champion be crowned or will Verstappen join the exclusive list of three drivers to ever secure five world championships?