Antonelli securing championship glory, Hamilton on pole with Ferrari and more: What to expect in the Mexico City Grand Prix

What a week it’s been—and the Grand Prix hasn’t even begun yet. With the season drawing to a close and tensions high in the middle of a triple header, Mexico City has already provided plenty of drama both on and off the track and be sure to expect more with the upcoming race; one where history is sure to be made by Kimi Antonelli.

Following an electric qualifying session that saw Lewis Hamilton secure his first ever pole with Scuderia Ferrari, the grid is set, with George Russell and Charles Leclerc completing the top three. 

The record books await. Here’s everything you should look out for at the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix.

Kimi Antonelli’s crowning moment

He’s had to wait for it, but this round will undoubtedly be the venue of Antonelli’s much anticipated Drivers’ Championship coronation. In order to reach championship glory, the permutations require Antonelli to finish anywhere in the top nine to seal the trophy.

Barring that, if Antonelli finishes 10th, provided Russell doesn’t win the race the Italian driver will be champion. Even if he fails to score a single point, he will be champion as long as neither Russell nor Hamilton win the race.

Lining up fourth for the race with the championship his in all but formality, Antonelli will simply have to bring it home to fulfill a childhood dream.

Mercedes vs Ferrari as the lights go out

Mexico City’s run to the first corner has seen numerous incidents over the years, and polesitter Hamilton will be aware that his position will not be particularly envied by Russell in second, Leclerc in third and Antonelli in fourth. Even Max Verstappen in fifth will have his sights on capitalising on any chaos at the front to snatch the lead.

Only four of the past 10 races here have been won from pole position, and the opening laps of this race have always provided plenty of excitement and opportunities for drivers to make up positions at the outset.

Chasing his second victory with Ferrari, Hamilton would have the chance to delay Antonelli’s title celebrations if he wins and the Mercedes driver fails to score any points.

Ryō Hirakawa’s Grand Prix debut

Haas have had a messy public falling out with Esteban Ocon, choosing to replace him mid-weekend with Ryō Hirakawa, Formula One’s oldest debutant since 2014, aged 32.

Though details remain sparse, the understanding from Ocon’s message on social media and Haas’ own statement is that there was an intense disagreement between the Frenchman and the team, presumably regarding the run plan during FP2.

Seemingly the straw that broke the camel’s back, Ocon who’s set to depart the team this year was replaced by Hirakawa with immediate effect.

The Japanese driver bagged 18th on his F1 qualifying debut, and will line up four spots behind fellow Haas driver Ollie Bearman. Though the goal will be to secure points on debut, with Haas’ patchy recent run and their many reliability issues, Hirakawa will also just be hoping for a straightforward race after being called upon at such short notice, though he did have FP1 to familiarise himself with the car.

Piastri’s recovery drive

For the first time since the 2024 edition of this race, Oscar Piastri failed to reach Q3. The 2026 season has been a true test for the Australian driver, who’s struggled to adjust to the overhauled regulations and get up to speed with the new car and the driving style it requires.

Starting 13th, Piastri will be on a damage control mission for this race as he attempts to climb back into the points.

He attributed his qualifying woes to a lack of rear grip with the tyres, stating: “The new set of tyres we put on in Q2 just had no grip. Not sure what happened there but the balance was completely different somehow. I don't really know what happened, I'm sure we'll have a look but just very bizarre.”

Whatever the cause, McLaren’s race pace has at least looked more promising than their qualifying performance, with Lando Norris in sixth who will also be eager to make inroads into the top five and possibly even a podium.

Reliability concerns

Though these have been a near constant across all rounds this season, Mexico City poses a unique challenge owing to its high altitude and challenges in cooling with the air being thinner. With the air being less dense than usual, the cooling systems for the brakes and power units receive reduced airflow, opening the window for more reliability gremlins.

We’ve already seen a number of issues crop up this weekend, most recently, Fernando Alonso being ordered to stop his car in the early parts of qualifying.

Further stoppages during the Grand Prix can be expected, and any interruptions will undoubtedly swing the race.