IndyCar Preview: Music City Grand Prix
- Dan Jones
- 15 hours ago
- 10 min read
It all comes down to this. After 16 fabulous races in the 2025 IndyCar season, the series' heads to its final destination of the year at the Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, Tennessee. Although the championship may be wrapped up and the race being a last hurrah for the year, there is still plenty on the line during the final race of the season and several storylines to look out for. Believe it or not, it is time for Round 17 of 17 in the 2025 IndyCar season in Nashville for the Music City Grand Prix.
What happened in Milwaukee?
IndyCar heads to Nashville just a week after the chequered flag at Milwaukee, but the majority of the paddock is likely to be still catching their breath.
Álex Palou's utter domination of the 2025 season looked destined to continue at Milwaukee - even if it was his perceived weakest track type in a short oval. Palou took a dominant pole by 0.7 mph and had led almost start-to-finish and looked destined for a ninth victory of the season.
However, with 25 laps to go that turned on his head. It would be unfair to say that the heavens had opened, as it was simply a drizzle that covered the Milwaukee Mile, but enough to stop the green flag action. The proceeding caution allowed the majority of the field to switch onto fresher tyres for the closing stint of the race.
That gave Christian Rasmussen a chance to do what he does best. The Danish driver who is never afraid of making big moves did exactly that on his fresher tyres. He quickly dispatched of Pato O'Ward, Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin with just Palou between him and victory. Palou fought all he could but he was helpless against Rasmussen's fresh Firestones.
Rasmussen stunned the field to claim a first victory in his sophomore season and give Ed Carpenter Racing their first victory since 2021 in one of the most feel-good stories of the season.
FOX averaged 779,000 viewers throughout the race at Milwaukee, and remain at a 28% increase in comparison to NBC's performance last season.
You can read the full race report here, the DIVEBOMB IndyCar Podcast's race review here and my gradebook here.
Palou still finished second in Milwaukee and further extended his unassailable points lead over O'Ward. O'Ward's fifth-place finish in Milwaukee secured himself second in the final standings, the highest position that he has ever secured in his IndyCar career. The fight very much remains on for third and below. Top 10 are as follows:
Palou - 670
O'Ward - 505
Dixon - 433
Lundgaard - 426
Kirkwood - 405
Herta - 352
Armstrong - 352
Power - 347
Rosenqvist - 346
McLaughlin - 320
All you need to know about Nashville
The Nashville Superspeedway will host the IndyCar season finale for the second consecutive season, after the redeveloped street course race had to be cancelled due to ongoing works with the Tennessee Titans' NFL stadium. It remains unclear whether that race will return to the streets in the future.
The D-shaped oval is 1.333 miles (2.140km) long and features banking of 14 degrees in the corners, with nine degrees on the frontstretch and six on the backstretch. The oval is one of very select few that has a concrete surface and the only concrete oval on the IndyCar schedule.
IndyCar first visited the oval in 2001 where it stayed until 2008. IndyCar returned to the Nashville area with an infamous street course between 2021 and 2023 which had a reputation for crash-filled races and was expected to host the season finale in 2024 with a re-purposed layout. However, the chief promoter of the Music City Grand Prix, Scott Borchetta, opted against the street circuit for logistical reasons and moved the event back to the oval. Borchetta is the CEO for Big Machine Label Group who were the title sponsor of the event last season, but Borchetta has since changed the title sponsor to another of his companies, Borchetta Bourbon.
Colton Herta is the defending winner of the race after he made a daring late-race pass on O'Ward to claim his first career oval victory. It had seemed to break an oval deadlock for Herta, but the Californian has not finished inside the top 10 on an oval this season. It was mostly an Andretti Global weekend as Kyle Kirkwood took pole on Saturday for his only to-date career pole on an oval.
Historically though, this event belongs to Scott Dixon. The six-time champion claimed three victories in a row between 2006 and 2008 in addition to finishing second in 2003. His return to the Superspeedway last year did not revoke those same memories though, as he finished poorly in 17th.
As the series trialled last season, Nashville will once again see the alternate tyre compound used on an oval in order to promote more strategy and better racing. The trial was met with a mixed reception last season. Six sets of primary tyres will be available with four sets of the alternate tyres. In race trim, teams must use one set of primary tyres and two sets of the alternate tyre.
This race was also one of several in the off-season to have its lap count extended as it increases from 206 to 225. The reason for the change was to prevent fuel saving races and promote better strategy - the jury is out on how that will fare alongside the additional tyre compound.
What to look out for in Nashville
Yes the battle for the top two positions in the championship may be over but there is plenty still on the line at Nashville.
Rookie of the Year
Maybe the most intriguing is the battle for the Rookie of the Year award. With the Indianapolis 500, IndyCar champion and Manufacturers' Cup already secured, it remains the only formal title still to be decided this season. Louis Foster currently holds an eight-point lead over Robert Shwartzman in the battle for those honours as Jacob Abel was eliminated from contention after Milwaukee.
Shwartzman, who comes from an extensive background in road course racing, has surprisingly impressed on ovals this season. He claimed a stunning Indianapolis 500 pole on his oval debut and has claimed his only top 10 finishes on ovals this season, at both Gateway and Iowa.
Foster races for a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing team who have struggled with their oval package throughout the course of the last few seasons. Foster has generally been more consistent than Shwartzman throughout the course of the year but is still to achieve a top 10 finish.
Foster had the edge over Shwartzman in Milwaukee, despite an engine penalty, where he further extended his lead. However, Nashville cannot be compared to any other oval on the calendar, being much higher speeds than those at Gateway, Iowa and Milwaukee but significantly lower than that of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It will be a fascinating storyline to follow throughout the weekend.
Oval points standings
In an 'unofficial' sense, there does remain a battle for which driver claims the most oval points across the course of the year. The award was previously formally presented as the A.J. Foyt Oval Trophy but is not actively award - but is still an interesting battle nonetheless.
Palou currently holds a 13 point lead over O'Ward in the hunt to add to his road course accolades in 2025. It would be a monumental achievement for Palou who prior to this season was regarded as a weaker oval driver and had never had an oval victory coming into the year. However, victories at the Indianapolis 500 and at Iowa Speedway, as well as his sensational run at Milwaukee have elevated him into the lead of those standings.
O'Ward on the other hand has finished in the top five in each of the five oval races thus far this season and has reached a level of consistency he has never achieved in his career. He was the runner-up at Nashville last season, albeit he benefitted hugely from strategy. O'Ward claimed the most oval points in both 2021 and 2022 so will be looking to add to those previous successes.
Unfortunately for Palou, Nashville was one of his most anonymous outings of his 2024 title-winning season as he cruised to a third IndyCar championship by finishing 11th. A similar result would put a potential oval title in serious jeopardy.
Leaders' Circle
The top 22 chartered entries in owner points will receive additional funding of approximately $1 million heading into next season as part of the Leaders' Circle program. It is therefore vital for team owners to secure this additional funding. However, this is a battle which is more mathematical than reality.
Foster's No.45 entry is on the cutline, 29 points ahead of Sting Ray Robb and 45 ahead of Devlin DeFrancesco. Robb would need a podium to oust Foster, whilst DeFrancesco will need to win the race. Considering neither driver has claimed a top eight finish with three seasons apiece of experience, I wouldn't be expecting Foster's position to be under threat in Nashville.
Third in points
The first two positions in the final championship standings may have already been decided, but its third place where the focus will be at Nashville. Dixon holds a 7 point lead over Lundgaard, who in turn holds a 21 point lead over Kirkwood.
Kirkwood would require a podium and Dixon to finish no better than 24th and Lundgaard finish no better than 16th if he were to claim third in the standings. A win would certainly help his cause, however any chance of third in points feels unlikely given how many permutations need to go his way.
Lundgaard and Dixon on the other hand remain in battle. Lundgaard, still in his first season with Arrow McLaren, has typically not shown himself to be a strong oval driver but impressed in Milwaukee with a run to sixth place as he closed the gap to Dixon as the New Zealander finished ninth.
Across the course of the season, Dixon hasn't shown typically very strongly on ovals, even if he claimed second in Iowa after a fortuitous caution. However, Lundgaard's season has been very hit-and-miss on ovals too. With both their teammates leading the oval standings, both drivers will have a package good enough to be competing at the pointy end of the field.
Trying to avoid winless seasons
Nashville poses a last chance for many to claim a victory in 2025, including many of whom were expected pre-season to take multiple victories.
Newgarden has had torrid luck throughout the course of the year, particularly on ovals, but is staring down the barrel of a first winless season at Team Penske. He has won at least once race every year since 2014 and is currently on for his worst position in points since 2012. Newgarden however has won 10 of the last 22 oval races throughout the series and finished on the podium at Nashville last year - and even that was a frustrating result. Nashville represents a home race for Newgarden and it would be a happy-ish ending for a nightmare season.
Staying in the Penske camp, McLaughlin is under threat of his first winless season since his rookie year in 2021. McLaughlin has impressed mightily since he joined the series after switching from Australian Supercars but has been unable to replicate form in 2025 shown in recent seasons. He did achieve a first oval podium of the season in Milwaukee though and will be looking to improve that to the top step in Nashville.
Herta will need to defend his victory of a year ago if he is to prevent his third winless season in four years. 2024 seemed to be a breakout year for Herta, particularly on ovals but we have not seen such form in 2025, whilst his Andretti teammate, Kyle Kirkwood has had a huge step up in performance. Ovals have never been Herta's forte and as mentioned earlier, he still has no top 10 finish on an oval this season.
The continued battle for the 2026 No.12 seat
Team Penske have been known to get their business done early when it comes to contracts, but the future of the No.12 seat for 2026 remains a mystery.
Will Power has been the lead Penske driver this season, having the most podiums in the team and their sole victory of 2025. However, he remains the one under immense pressure for his future and Nashville will represent a final chance for him to show Penske officials why he deserves to continue at the team he has been with since 2009.
David Malukas, currently at AJ Foyt Racing with Penske funding, will be the one to replace Power should the Australian not have his contract renewed. Malukas has impressed on ovals greatly this season and did once again in Milwaukee before a pitstop error put halt to his strong progress. There could not be a better opportunity for Malukas to impress once again in his final chance in 2025 than on a high speed oval - a venue where he was very strong at last season.
It represents the last chance for both drivers before Penske have to make a decision of who will partner Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin.
A first-time winner?
It has felt like we would see a first-time IndyCar winner on an oval this season, with Christian Rasmussen being the one to deliver on that feeling in Milwaukee.
That's not to say it will end there though. Malukas will be heavily tipped based on the fact he could have won every oval race this season should things have gone his way. However, his teammate, Santino Ferrucci has impressed on ovals historically too and ran well at Nashville last season.
We're about due for a Conor Daly victory too. With his future remaining unknown for 2026 and beyond - this could be a last chance. Daly finished in the top 10 at Nashville last season, with his three top 10 finishes in 2025 also coming on ovals. He has had the potential for multiple podiums and even victories too and could be an outside bet for Nashville.
Timings
Installation Laps: 09:20 CT (15:20 BST) Saturday
Practice: 09:30 CT (15:30 BST) Saturday
Qualifying: 13:05 CT (19:05 BST) Saturday
Group Session: 15:45 CT (21:45 BST) Saturday
Final Practice: 16:30 CT (22:30 BST) Saturday
Race: 13:45 CT (19:20 BST) Sunday
The championship may be done and dusted but there is still plenty on the line in the IndyCar finale at Nashville Superspeedway. DIVEBOMB will bring you all the news and updates throughout the weekend as well as post-race analysis.
Although this may be the final preview of the year, stay tuned for plenty of content both on the DIVEBOMB website and on the DIVEBOMB IndyCar Podcast throughout the off-season. We'll keep up to date with weekly episodes and all the breaking news. I'd like to thank all of you who have read the previews this season - always a pleasure to write and I hope you all enjoy them too. It's time to say goodbye, but certainly not time to say farewell. See you in St. Petersburg!
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