Can Ferrari be an unexpected challenger in 2026 after years of close calls and false dawns?
- Charlotte Mui
- 13 hours ago
- 6 min read
It's been nearly two decades since Ferrari has claimed a championship in F1. Can they finally bounce back this year with a championship-contending car after a positive showing at the Barcelona shakedown?
After a decade marked by Mercedes and Red Bull dominance, 2022 was supposed to be a new beginning for the Scuderia, a chance for them to reclaim their former glory.
With a fresh set of regulations, a car that immediately looked quick in testing and an experienced but youthful driver pairing with sky-high potential, Ferrari seemed primed for success. The Tifosi were hopeful that the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships would finally be brought back to Maranello.
These hopes were further fuelled by Ferrari's extremely promising start to the season. In Bahrain, Charles Leclerc led home a Ferrari 1-2. Two races later in Australia, he produced his first-ever Grand Slam. It looked as though Ferrari had built a genuine title-winning car, entrusted to their prodigal son.
For a brief moment, it felt like the new dawn Ferrari fans had been waiting for. The opening races felt ominous for the rest of the grid, while the Tifosi celebrated what appeared to be the inaugurating season of their new champion.
This dream, however, unravelled almost immediately. Reliability failures, poor strategy calls, sub-par development and mounting pressure and criticism saw Ferrari fade throughout the season as Red Bull and Max Verstappen began to dominate after their disastrous start.
The rest of 2022 and the entirety of 2023 became the Verstappen-show, as the Dutchman secured his second and third title in emphatic fashion. Ferrari’s only glimmer of hope came at the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix, where Carlos Sainz secured the only none-Red Bull victory of the 2023 season, but it did little to disguise another underwhelming year. It was clear more than ever that their championship drought would continue.
A near miss, followed by a collapse
2024 offered another chance at redemption. Turmoil at Red Bull meant they were no longer untouchable and the rest of the teams were catching up; Ferrari’s driver lineup proved critical here.
Although they rarely possessed the outright fastest car, consistency became their greatest strength while rival teams fluctuated. With Verstappen and Lando Norris locked in a Drivers’ Championship duel, Sergio Pérez struggling in the second Red Bull, and Oscar Piastri still only in his second full season, Leclerc and Sainz accumulated points steadily enough to challenge McLaren for the Constructors’ title heading into the finale in Abu Dhabi.
Ultimately, Norris held firm, winning a crucial race that allowed McLaren to secure the championship by just 14 points. Ferrari, once again, lost out.
On the bright side, their strong end to 2024 generated plenty of positive noise around Maranello heading into the 2025 season. There was optimism and belief that Ferrari had finally laid the foundations for sustained success. And with Lewis Hamilton joining the camp, anything seemed possible.
Momentum, however, proved fragile, as 2025 would result in the Scuderia's worst season of the regulation cycle. McLaren would dominate, winning both Constructors’ and Drivers’ titles, Verstappen would pull off one of his best seasons yet, nearly completing the most unlikely title surge in Formula One history and Mercedes would secure victories in Canada and Singapore. Ferrari would finish fourth in the standings, despite having what many considered the strongest driver pairing on the grid.
The bigger picture is damning. All in all, it’s been nearly 20 years since the most historic team on the grid has secured a Drivers’ title (Kimi Räikkönen in 2007) or a Constructors’ title (2008).
To put this into perspective, within that same timeframe, McLaren have gone from the benchmark of the grid, to backmarkers and back to champions. Ferrari, by contrast, have almost always remained near the front, but have never been able to put together a successful championship campaign.
A souring potential reset
The 2026 regulation change should, in theory, have been a relief. Ferrari appeared to be slipping further into the midfield under the current generation of cars, unable to scrape even a single win in 2025. The new rules provided an opportunity to reset.
Instead, the build-up was dominated with uncertainty, and public comments from John Elkann, Ferrari’s chairman, only heightened the tension.
When the SF-25 was clearly not up to par, he chose to criticise the drivers instead: “[Hamilton and Leclerc] need to focus on driving and talk less.”
These comments raised questions about the stability of Ferrari's internal camp. Though Hamilton certainly struggled with the car throughout the season, the driving calibre was far from the main issue; Elkann’s comments spoke volumes about the harmony within Ferrari. It did not feel like the ideal foundation for a new era.
The power unit picture only added to the unease. Mercedes’ 2026 engines had been the subject of increasingly loud whispers, with some in the paddock daring to compare it to their 2014–2016 dominance. McLaren, fresh Constructors’ Champions, will be running the same power unit, with many other teams on the grid opting to purchase from Mercedes as well.
Against that backdrop, Ferrari’s engine appeared, at least externally, to be playing catch-up.
Leclerc’s comments ahead of the 2026 season further stoked the flame: “Next year is crucial, [...] it’s now or never.”
The Monegasque driver has been unyieldingly loyal to the Scuderia, but his words almost sounded like a warning. Like if Ferrari failed to provide a championship-contending car once again, they could lose their star driver.
Meanwhile, statements from Frederic Vasseur, Ferrari’s team principal, did not raise any confidence: “The season won’t be over in Australia. It doesn't matter if we are P1 or P10.”
His words seemed to be setting expectations low and implying that the car would not be in a competitive spot for the season opener. This sparked criticism from fans and media alike, who were hoping that this would finally be the year F1’s most successful team returns to the fore.
A shift in mood in Barcelona
And yet, almost unexpectedly, Ferrari may have quietly shifted the narrative.
The Barcelona shakedown has been, by their standards, extremely encouraging. The SF-26 completed significant mileage with barely any reliability concerns, a stark contrast compared to the previous year.
Hamilton praised the team for their efforts: “Today, I did 85 laps in the morning, which is amazing. That's really down to all the people in the factory who have done such a great job to make sure that the car, so far, is really reliable.
“Last year we had a worse start to testing. So, considering this is a completely new band of rules, it's better than we've experienced in the past, so I'm really hopeful that continues."
After weeks of backlash, Hamilton’s words are re-planting seeds of hope in the minds of the Tifosi.
In a similar vein, Leclerc sounded intrigued by the new generation of car: “I definitely feel more and more comfortable [as testing goes on]. It’s very interesting.”
For a driver who has often had to mask his disappointment with diplomacy, these comments feel different, quietly optimistic, perhaps. Not unimpressed, like he had been so often in previous years.
Significantly, both drivers looked to be in high spirits in Barcelona, seemingly trying to disguise their smiles in interviews.
Hamilton set the fastest lap recorded during testing and Ferrari logged the second-highest number of laps overall. These are not guarantees of success, but they are not nothing either.
Perhaps, most interestingly, Ferrari have almost slipped under the radar, a rarity for F1’s most scrutinised team. With the Mercedes engine drawing so much attention, Red Bull’s bold in-house project and the arrival of new teams in Cadillac and Audi, there is less attention surrounding the Red Team.
Maybe this is what they have been needing all this time.
An open grid
The 2026 field looks almost deceptively tight as testing wraps up in Barcelona. Most of the top teams seem to have hit the ground running. Drivers have been cautious on what they say to the media, not wanting to give much away, but most teams seem quietly pleased with their package.
While sandbagging is inevitable and testing times indicate very little, Ferrari, for the first time in a while, do not look like they are scrambling to fix fundamental problems. The SF-26 appears coherent, and the drivers sound engaged rather than exasperated. Crucially, Ferrari may finally be starting a regulation cycle on the front foot instead of chasing.
None of this makes them favourites. There are still far too many questions and uncertainties, not just surrounding their car, but their management as well. Yet in a season defined by uncertainty, Ferrari’s greatest strength may be that expectations are finally low.
After nearly two decades of false dawns, near-misses and wasted potential, perhaps that is exactly what the Scuderia need for a championship campaign.
Testing in Bahrain in a couple weeks time will give a better indication of the pecking order, but, for now, Ferrari can definitely mark the Barcelona shakedown as a success and be happy with the progress they have made over the off-season.
Whether than means the SF-26 will emerge as a genuine title-challenger remains to be seen.
