Does Ferrari have the potential to fight Mercedes for the F1 championships?
- Chloe Buckley
- 2 hours ago
- 5 min read
This past Sunday was the first race of a new Formula One era. In Melbourne, Australia under the new regulations, we witnessed a chaotic race full of overtakes, and one key storyline quickly emerged - Ferrari may finally have the pace to fight for the championships.
George Russell took pole position in Melbourne on the Saturday and converted this into victory a day later. But it wasn’t as easy for him to maintain this position for the duration of the race.
Both Mercedes cars started the race with zero percent battery having used it all in the formation lap. This meant at Turn 1 of the opening lap, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc managed to make his way from the third row to the lead of the race. From that moment, the race turned into a fierce battle between Leclerc and Russell with constant overtakes to become race leader.
Meanwhile, both Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton quickly made their way through to the front of the pack, after losing their positions at the race start. The quick recovery from Antonelli and Hamilton is a positive sign for the pace and confidence in their cars.
In the end, Mercedes won the battle for the top two steps on the podium. Leclerc and Hamilton managed to put up a good fight against Russell and Antonelli in Australia, but the question is: can they keep up the championship battle against a clearly dominant Mercedes?
Where could Ferrari excel?
It was made clear in Australia that Ferrari need to work on their strategy going into race weekends and they must be able to adapt quickly when needed. Their pace is clear, but strategy will determine whether that speed turns into race wins.
So, where could Ferrari exceed in their championship battle? In terms of tracks where the team could put in some good results, lower-speed, high-downforce circuits could be where Ferrari stands out. These types of tracks prioritise traction out of slow corners and strong aerodynamic ability rather than outright top speed.
The first example would be the Circuit de Monaco, the most iconic race on the F1 calendar and Leclerc’s home race. This track is full of tight and twisty corners that require a lower speed, especially the infamous Fairmont Hairpin (formerly known as Loews Hairpin) that is taken at around 30 mph (48 kph).
Tracks like Monaco reward cars with strong traction and predictable handling at low speed. Track position is also critical at this circuit meaning a strong qualifying performance can play directly in their favour.
Both Leclerc and Hamilton have won in Monaco, with Leclerc winning once in 2024, and Hamilton winning in the Principality a total of three times.
Singapore is another race on the calendar where Ferrari has chances at succeeding. The Marina Bay Street Circuit also has some low speed corners, such as the hairpin at Turn 13 which is roughly taken at 34 mph (55 kph).
Marina Bay is a demanding circuit, where high levels of downforce and traction places huge stress on tyre management in the hot and humid conditions. If Ferrari can work on their strategy and implement a good tyre performance over long runs, they could be seen as the most competitive team under the Singapore street lights.
Top speed will not be enough to hold off Mercedes this season. Improving race strategy will be essential moving forward in the championship. Decisive pit calls, reacting quickly to safety cars and managing tyre strategy often determine race outcomes as much as raw pace does.
Consistency is key, and if Ferrari can maximise results at tracks that suit their strengths, while limiting damage at tracks where Mercedes may have the advantage, they could remain firmly in the title fight.
Where will Mercedes retaliate?
On the contrary, Mercedes will be likely to shine on tracks with high-speed corners. Tyre management and high-speed stability are conditions that Mercedes cars historically are well balanced at.
The Belgian Grand Prix, held at Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps is home to some of the fastest corners on the F1 race calendar. Turn 2 is a slight right turn ahead of the Eau Rouge/Radillion corners. It is taken at around 189 mph (305 kph) and is one of the fastest sections of the entire circuit. If Mercedes continue to show strength in fast corners, Spa could provide an opportunity to outscore Ferrari.
Another track where Mercedes may find success is at the Miami Grand Prix, held at the Miami International Autodrome. Turn 10 in Miami requires a similar aerodynamic stability to Spa’s Turn 2, also taken at around 189 mph.
To defend from Ferrari across the season, Mercedes will rely on consistency and race execution. While Ferrari may hold the advantage in some of the lower-speed races, Mercedes often excels at managing tyre degradation and adapting their strategy during races.
Ultimately, Mercedes' response to Ferrari’s challenge will likely come down to maintaining their strengths with high-speed circuits, strong strategies and good tyre management. If the team can continue to extract the best from the car, Mercedes may be able to defend their position in the championship battle even as Ferrari continues to push throughout the year.
What to expect going forward?
Both Mercedes and Ferrari have the opportunity to pull back from the past two years they had, where neither team’s pace consistently matched the front runners. Early signs of 2026 suggest that both outfits may have the performance needed to run at the front again. Their updated cars look way more competitive, showing levels of speed and balance that have been missing in the previous couple of years.
However, it is still early days in the season, and with full McLaren and Red Bull teams in the race, the competitive order could change once again. For now though, Mercedes and Ferrari appear confident that the new regulations are working in their favour despite any concerns initially expressed about the changes.
As the season develops, we can expect even more on-track battles between the four drivers leading these teams. With the new generation of power-units, drivers must be careful of how energy is deployed in a lap, particularly on long straights where deployment is essential for overtaking. When a driver runs out of deployable battery at full throttle – known as super clipping – the car switches to recovery mode to harvest energy, leaving them vulnerable to an attack from another driver with battery power available. Due to super clipping we will most likely see even more overtakes during races, making it an interesting watch.
If Australia was any indication, the battle between Ferrari and Mercedes could become one of the defining rivalries of 2026.The championship fight is only just getting underway and Shanghai could provide another early glimpse into how closely matched the two teams may be in 2026.
The Chinese Grand Prix will return this weekend from the 13th-15th March, taking place at the Shanghai International Circuit, a high-downforce track where Ferrari may have an early opportunity to challenge Mercedes once again.
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