Formula One Preview: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Peter Johnson
- 1 hour ago
- 9 min read
Written by Peter Johnson, Edited by Vyas Ponnuri
This is the end. Hold your breath and count to ten…
Formula One’s first title decider since 2021 is finally upon us. Somehow the world’s fastest circus arrives in Abu Dhabi with three drivers still in contention, the first such occasion since 2010.
Either McLaren driver of Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri could have put the championship to bed by now, but due to his relentless speed, consistency and frankly immunity to pressure, Max Verstappen returns to the circuit where his era of dominance began very much in the title hunt.
Circuit guide
The Yas Marina circuit in the United Arab Emirates first appeared on the F1 calendar in 2009. Built on a man-made island and costing over $1 billion (£800 million) to construct, the venue remains the most expensive racing venue ever constructed.
The circuit has hosted four previous title deciders - in 2010, 2014, 2016 and 2021 - with the latter arguably the most famous, or indeed infamous, race in the sport’s 75-year history.
Drivers and fans alike have often criticised the circuit’s layout, including Kimi Räikkönen, whose succinct assessment of “the first few turns are good, but the rest of it is ****” having been paraphrased many times down the years.
Fernando Alonso was one high-profile casualty of the circuit’s lack of overtaking opportunities, losing the title in 2010 after spending most of the race stuck behind Vitaly Petrov’s Renault.
Several changes were made to the circuit ahead of 2021’s championship showdown, with the slow corner complexes of turns 5-7 and 11-14 replaced with fast, flowing left-handers and the 90-degree corners in sector 3 opened up to allow drivers to carry more speed.
The circuit layout now comprises 16 mainly high-and-medium-speed corners, with the best overtaking opportunity into the heavy braking zone of Turn 6. There are also options for drivers to make a surprise lunge up the inside too — take Max Verstappen’s title-winning move on Lewis Hamilton at Turn 5 in 2021 as a case in point.
Weekend format
This year’s sprints are done and dusted, so we have the classic three Practice sessions, Qualifying and race in Abu Dhabi. The first Practice session will feature several reserve drivers, though, with title contender Oscar Piastri crucially giving up his seat on Friday morning.
Arvid Lindblad, confirmed this week as a Racing Bulls driver for 2026, will deputise for Yuki Tsunoda at Red Bull in P1, while Arthur Leclerc will drive alongside his brother in place of Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari.
Aston Martin will be running a fully changed lineup, with Jak Crawford and Cian Shields in for Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.
Paul Aron for Pierre Gasly at Alpine, Ayumu Iwasa for Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls and Ryō Hirakawa for Esteban Ocon at Haas are the other confirmed changes.
Session times (in GMT)
Practice 1 Fri 09:30 - 10:30
Practice 2 Fri 13:00 - 14:00
Practice 3 Sat 10:30 - 11:30
Qualifying Sat 14:00 - 15:00
Race Sun 13:00
Weather forecast
We tend to know what to expect with regard to weather in Abu Dhabi, and this year is no different. Each of the key sessions takes place later in the day, with evening temperatures expected to be around 23 degrees Celsius across the weekend.
Major talking points
The final countdown: There is only one place to start, isn’t there? 23 races down and three drivers are separated by 16 points, each with seven wins apiece. Max Verstappen looked down by the summer break but was never out, while dips in form at various points in the season for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, not to mention their double disqualification in Vegas, have allowed the four-time world champion to remain in contention.
Piastri will begin the weekend on the back foot, though, as he gives up his seat in Practice 1 to Pato O’Ward.
A podium on Sunday would be enough for Norris to claim his maiden title, but surely at least one of his rivals will be there to capitalise should anything go wrong.
2026 grid completed: All 22 seats for next season’s grid have now been confirmed, with Red Bull having announced that Isack Hadjar will replace Yuki Tsunoda at the senior team, while Arvid Lindblad will join as a rookie alongside Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls. Neither team line-up is a huge surprise given the murmurings of recent weeks and months.
Battle for P2 in the Constructors’ Championship: McLaren may have checked out in the teams’ standings, but second place is still up for grabs. Mercedes look pretty certain to seal it, with Red Bull needing to outscore the Silver Arrows by 33 points to move up a spot. That would require Yuki Tsunoda to finish at least sixth, which he has achieved just once this season. Ferrari’s capitulation in recent weeks means they are guaranteed fourth place.
Midfield fight to be settled: Just 24 points separate Racing Bulls, Aston Martin, Haas and Sauber, who occupy sixth through ninth in the Constructors’ Championship. Granted, Sauber is unlikely to score the 24 points needed to jump up to sixth, but the very tight gaps between all four teams mean each could potentially yet move a couple of places up or down.
RB and Sauber have scored a podium each this season, while Oliver Bearman’s fourth place for Haas in Mexico and Fernando Alonso’s fifth for Aston in Hungary demonstrate that all four teams can score well on their day. Several million pounds’ worth of prize money is on the line here, as is wind tunnel time for 2026, which could be huge in the first season of new regulations.
Goodbye to a legendary name: The name “Sauber” first appeared on the Formula One grid at the season-opening 1993 South African Grand Prix, with the Sauber C12 piloted by Karl Wendlinger and JJ Lehto. Fast forward to the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and Peter Sauber is about to lend his name to a Formula One team for the final time.
The team has gone through several iterations, including partnerships with BMW and later Alfa Romeo, and has offered debuts in the sport to the likes of 2007 world champion Kimi Räikkönen and Charles Leclerc. 1997 champion Jacques Villeneuve, Heinz-Harald Frentzen, Nick Heidfeld, Felipe Massa, Giancarlo Fisichella, Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Pérez are a handful of notable alumni among a litany of talented drivers to have represented the team.
Sauber may never have achieved any World Championships, and indeed only experienced its best run under the guise of BMW Sauber between 2006 and 2010, but as a minnow for much of its existence as a team it has served the name well. The Hinwil-based team becomes Audi from 2026, with a huge future ahead.
Past Abu Dhabi Grands Prix
The Yas Marina circuit may have held four championship deciders, each dramatic in their own right, but truthfully there is one that stands out well above the rest.
Many supporters of Formula One, and indeed many individuals on the inside, will never truly come to terms with the events of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but there is little arguing against its status as surely the most famous race of all time.
We all know the story — Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton were tied on points heading into the final race, with the latter several seconds up the road and on course for a record eighth world title. Nicholas Latifi crashed, Verstappen pitted for new tyres behind the safety car, and race director Michael Masi — who, in hindsight, had lost control of the intense championship battle long before it reached Abu Dhabi — contravened the safety car procedure to grant Verstappen one lap to seize the race lead and the title from Hamilton.
That fateful day, almost four years ago (12th December 2021, to be precise), officially marked the start of the Max Verstappen era, and the Dutchman has reigned supreme ever since.
The 2021 race was not the first time that a Red Bull dynasty began in Abu Dhabi. In 2010, Sebastian Vettel entered the final race trailing Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber in the standings, with Lewis Hamilton also a mathematical outsider. A poor pit strategy by the two main contenders left them languishing in seventh and eighth, respectively, while Vettel won the race and the title. Three more titles followed in successive years, as has happened for Verstappen.
Notable also about the 2010 season was that Vettel never led the championship at any point until the chequered flag fell in Abu Dhabi. Verstappen has at no point led the way in 2025, and in snatching the crown again this week would mirror the German’s triumph 15 years ago.
The other two title deciders in Abu Dhabi were contested by Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg in 2014 and 2016. The 2014 race had the controversial twist of double points, with Hamilton collecting an ultimately irrelevant 50 points for victory while Rosberg limped home outside of the points with an engine issue.
The German turned the tide two years later, defeating Hamilton despite the Briton’s efforts to back him into the pursuing Vettel and Verstappen in a nailbiting finale. Rosberg retired from the sport the week after.
Outside of the championship deciders, the 2012 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix provided another all-time Formula One moment, as word-shy race leader Kimi Räikkönen uttered his infamous “Leave me alone, I know what I’m doing” line en route to victory for Lotus.
Last race recap
Lando Norris could have sealed his maiden title in Qatar while Max Verstappen won from third on the grid, but that barely scratches the surface of how the race unfolded.
Amid concerns about tyre durability, Pirelli mandated that no tyre compound may run for more than 25 laps. In order to complete Sunday’s 57-lap with the minimum two pit stops, every driver had to reach at least Lap 7 on their opening stint, leaving 50 laps to be split evenly between two further stints.
An incident between Nico Hülkenberg and Pierre Gasly at the start of Lap 7 prompted every driver other than the two McLarens to pit, with a view to making a second stop 25 laps later on Lap 32 and racing to the end.
The McLaren pair, of course also the top two in the Drivers’ Championship, opted to stay out, choosing to maintain track position on a circuit where overtaking is notoriously difficult.
Max Verstappen, who had been running second on the road behind Piastri in the opening stages, found himself right on the tail of both McLarens at the restart with an entire pit stop’s advantage.
We know how the race unfolded after that — Piastri and Norris scampered off up the road, pulled a gap and managed to re-emerge from their first pit stops behind only Verstappen, Carlos Sainz and Kimi Antonelli.
Every driver then pitted once more, as stipulated, with the McLaren duo again out of sync. Piastri clawed his way back to second, while Norris managed a late move on Antonelli to take fourth.
The result, while a disaster for McLaren, sets up an absolutely mouthwatering title showdown featuring more than two drivers for the first time since 2010.
Drivers to watch
It comes as no surprise that the main drivers to watch are the three title contenders, so here are their key numbers from this season ahead of the showdown.
Lando Norris: 1st (408 points)
Seven race wins
Seven poles
18 podiums
Two retirements
One disqualification
Norris needs a podium to secure the title.
Max Verstappen: 2nd (396 points)
Seven race wins
Seven poles
14 podiums
One retirement
Barring a major incident for Norris, realistically Verstappen needs to win and see the Briton finish off the podium.
Oscar Piastri: 3rd (392 points)
Seven race wins
Six poles
15 podiums
One retirement
One disqualification
The rank outsider this weekend, Piastri needs to finish at least second to have a chance of the title. He must finish ahead of Verstappen and see Norris finish outside the top five to have any hope.
Throwing another name into the mix, Lewis Hamilton has just one more race to salvage one of his most impressive records in Formula One.
Of the eight title deciders since 2007, this is only the second (aside from 2012) in which Hamilton did not have at least a mathematical shot at the title. However, the seven-time world champion’s sights are a little lower this weekend.
The Briton requires a top-three finish to extend his record of a podium in every season he has competed, which would at least conclude a miserable first season with Ferrari on a relative high.
Peter’s prediction
Such is his points advantage, albeit slender, Lando Norris is the obvious answer for the World Championship given his greater margin for error on Sunday. That feels like a chicken’s prediction, though, so I’ll go for a Max Verstappen race victory to keep things interesting.
