F1 2026 predictions: The championships, biggest surprises and more
- DIVEBOMB Motorsport
- 4 hours ago
- 11 min read
Ahead of F1's 2026 season opener in Australia, we asked our writers to share their predictions for the year that marks the launch of a fresh era for F1.
After months of patient waiting, it's finally Formula One race week! The start of the 2026 season is one of the most highly anticipated moments in the sport's history, with a sweeping regulations reset and exciting new faces on the grid.
Ahead of the Australian Grand Prix, we asked our F1 writers to share their predictions on the Drivers' Championship, Constructors' Championship and more. Here are their takes on what is set to become one of the most thrilling seasons we've ever seen in the sport.
Who will be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?
Meghana Sree: Hear me out. With a car that looked better in testing than in recent years, consistency we’ve seen throughout his career and a point to prove after years of dedicating himself to Ferrari, I really do think Charles Leclerc will win his maiden Drivers’ title this year. Even if we’ll likely see a multi-driver championship fight, I’ve always believed that if Leclerc’s given the fastest car — which the SF-26 is very close to being — he can easily outclass the rest of his competition. All he needs is for Ferrari to iron out their team management and a pinch of luck, which might be a tall ask for the Monégasque given his history, but there’s a first time for everything, right?
Jason Sharp: Max Verstappen. I have no doubt in my mind about this. We saw what he could do with inferior machinery in 2025, coming back from a 104-point deficit to missing the title by just two. He adapts quickly, has an edge over the others, and if the Red Bull is decent enough, he will deliver.
Bo Helmus: The Dutchman. He closed a 100+ points gap in just nine races with a car that was undeniably slower than the dominant McLaren. He has said he doesn’t like the 2026 car, but he proves time and time again that he can get his Red Bull to do things that no one deemed possible. He did settle for car No.3, but I’m sure he much prefers the No.1.
Maham Mir: George Russell. I think that winning a title has always been a matter of when and not if for the British driver and there’s no doubt that he’s impressed many people as he’s stepped up to become the team leader at Mercedes. Pair this with his ability to always capitalise on every opportunity presented to him, this might finally be his year.
Peter Johnson: Russell. All the evidence from pre-season testing — which, granted, must be taken with a pinch of salt — points to Mercedes being the class of the field once more. Russell was one of the stars of 2025 and was the only man outside of the three title challengers to taste victory. He has been steadily building up to become one of the sport’s main men, from his early days as a serial qualifier, to going head-to-head with Lewis Hamilton as his teammate, to leading the team following the latter’s departure. If he has a title-winning car, I simply don’t see who stops him, especially with Verstappen and Red Bull not expected to be quite as competitive from the get-go.
Chloe Buckley: There is no denying the talent of Leclerc. He’s been performing well at Ferrari for several seasons now, despite having difficulties with the cars. After the pre-season tests, the SF-26 looks to have a strong pace, and the Monégasque excelled in the machinery during the simulations. We all know he has it in him to keep it up for the rest of the season.
Which team will take the Constructors’ crown?
MS: Mercedes may be the quickest package from what we’ve seen so far, but Ferrari is not too far behind. To spice up this round of predictions, I predict that the Scuderia will reclaim the Constructors’ title after nearly two decades with a competitive car in the hands of the most experienced driver pairing of the top teams — a line-up that doesn’t include a fresh face to the sport, like with Mercedes or Red Bull.
JS: It will be close, but I think Mercedes will deliver the best executions consistently throughout the season. Both the car and the team will be incredibly strong.
BH: Mercedes will grab the title again. They looked quick in testing and had few major issues. The last time the F1 regulations changed this significantly was back when the V8 engines were traded for the turbo-hybrids. At that time, Mercedes was quick to adapt and won eight Constructors’ Championships in a row. The team has proven to be good at redesigning around their German engine, and I think they will be successful at this again.
MM: I don’t think there’s any doubt that the WCC will be a lot closer than we’ve seen in recent years but that being said, I think Mercedes will have the edge this season over their competitors. While Ferrari might have impressed everyone with their technical ideas at the pre-season test in Bahrain, I think that the front-runners have kept some tricks up their sleeves which they won’t reveal until it’s time for qualifying in Melbourne.
PJ: While I expect Mercedes to have the strongest car, I think the incredible driver line-up boasted by Ferrari will pay dividends. Even if the Silver Arrows do have the best package, I am not certain Kimi Antonelli is quite ready to provide the stream of points the team would need to take the teams’ title. I expect Ferrari to be close enough to the front of the grid that Leclerc and Hamilton will both be able to contribute significant points totals and bring the Scuderia its first championship since 2008.
CB: With the new regulations, it is difficult to predict how much the pecking order will switch up, but going off what we’ve seen so far, Mercedes could be on their way to their ninth Constructors’ title. Both Russell and Antonelli showed great pace in Bahrain over the 714 laps they completed, proving to have a reliable car and a performance worthy of winning the title.
What will be the biggest surprise of the season?
MS: Isack Hadjar may have had a rocky start this year with pre-season testing, but if he proved one thing in his rookie year, it’s that he can bounce back with determination. I expect the young Frenchman to finally break Red Bull’s notorious second seat curse and keep up with Max Verstappen — possibly even score a maiden win — as both drivers tackle not just fresh regulations, but a brand new Ford-powered engine too.
JS: Just as Haas did on debut, I think Cadillac will deliver strong results. With the priorly experienced Graeme Lowden at the helm and their veteran drivers, I think they will grab big points — especially if chaos unfolds ahead.
BH: I hope it’ll be Hadjar. If he can seriously fight for podiums regularly and keep up with Verstappen, he can break the Red Bull curse. That will be a surprise.
MM: A bit of a theme is developing in these answers but I also believe that this label will go to Hadjar. Although he might only be starting his sophomore year in F1 and he might become another name in a long list of drivers who have tried and failed to keep their seat as Verstappen’s teammate, I think that there’s two reasons why Hadjar won’t be like the drivers who came before him. One, his driving style is rumoured to be the most similar to Verstappen and two, his mindset seems different to those who came before — if Red Bull can deliver with their car, I dare say we might be celebrating his maiden win in 2026.
PJ: It seems ridiculous to insinuate that Hamilton winning races would be a surprise, but I think we will see more shades of the driver who won six championships in seven years between 2014 and 2020. He now has his feet under the table at Ferrari and has demonstrated growing influence in the team by having a greater involvement in the car’s development, while surely encouraging the replacement of Riccardo Adami as his race engineer. The new era of regulations, while not hugely appealing to several of the drivers, Hamilton included, look to suit his driving style far better than the ground-effect cars ever did. Hamilton was visibly demotivated in 2025 in an uncompetitive car that he didn’t understand. Give him a race-winning car that he is comfortable in — which Ferrari may well have done — and he will come alive once more.
CB: Oliver Bearman is one to watch this 2026 season. The young Briton joined the F1 grid with Haas in 2025, finishing 13th in the standings in his rookie season. The VF-26 proved to be reliable in Bahrain after touring the circuit 794 times, with Bearman taking the sixth fastest lap on the final day of testing. In 2026, the 20-year-old could be on his way to his first F1 podium.
What could be the biggest disappointment of the season?
MS: Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think the biggest disappointment this year will be the Spanish Grand Prix to be hosted in Madrid for the first time. Madring’s arrival on the calendar is already contentious, with the previous host of this round, Barcelona, being relegated to alternating on the calendar from 2027 onwards with one of F1’s most historic tracks, Spa-Francorchamps. The added slow construction progress, uninspiring track layout and numerous variables of racing on a fresh street circuit under new regulations makes it easy to predict that this year’s Spanish Grand Prix is liable to disappoint in one way or another.
JS: I think we already know that it’s Aston Martin; they are in big trouble. All of the right things are there, but it’s not harmonious. They can turn it around, but it won’t be a quick fix.
BH: Aston Martin. The Newey-Honda combination is not looking as quick as everyone thought it would be. Multiple members of the team have already said that not much will change until the summer break. By then it will be way too late to save their season.
MM: Unfortunately, this might be the only battle that Aston Martin will be the front-runners for in 2026. After a less than ideal start to the season, having missed crucial running time in both Barcelona and Bahrain, the team will be starting on the back foot and it’ll take time to bring themselves up to speed by which point it might already be too late.
PJ: I visited Madrid on holiday 18 months ago and took myself on a little guided tour of the new Madring circuit. I walked the streets that our 22 drivers will be tackling this year and stole an early glimpse of the purpose-built section of the track — I was not convinced at the time that either section would promote good racing, and I remain sceptical. With Spa being reduced to a part-timer on the F1 calendar, Spain has to be able to justify its extra spot and I’m not sure that it will.
CB: After winning two Constructors’ Championships in a row and Lando Norris winning the Drivers’ title, McLaren may have a disheartening run this year. They weren’t a standout team during testing, with Ferrari and Mercedes definitely being their biggest competition. I still have faith that they will be able to provide some solid results, however the drop-off will be a disappointing watch this season.
Which team will be the best of the rest?
MS: I expect Haas to take this title, given their steady progress during the past few seasons under Ayao Komatsu’s leadership and the balanced dynamic of their driver line-up. Esteban Ocon comes with years of experience and Bearman was one of the most promising rookies last season. With a reliable Ferrari power unit and a positive showing in testing, Haas can certainly make the jump up the board this year.
JS: I think Alpine will take this title. They’ve put an enormous emphasis on this season to turn things around. The car and power unit look strong, and after a few years of not being taken seriously, I think they will get their act together this year.
BH: I think Haas will be the best of the rest. Ocon and Bearman showed good pace in testing, and by now the drivers are used to the team and to the car, so they can definitely score some proper results.
MM: The competition within mid-field will be exciting in 2026, especially with the addition of a brand new 11th team. I think it will be close between Alpine and Haas, with the former running the Mercedes power unit and the latter using the Ferrari one, but the combined experience of the driver line-up at Alpine will give them the edge. Although Franco Colapinto had a less than ideal season in 2025, his performances at Williams prove he’s capable of great races and hopefully Alpine have finally given both drivers the car needed to showcase their talents.
PJ: While the 2022-25 era was characterised by a need for aerodynamic performance, from 2026 it looks like engines will be the biggest differentiator once more. With that in mind, I think Alpine will enjoy the biggest step forward in terms of performance, although whether the drivers — all eyes on you, Colapinto — can convert this into points remains to be seen.
CB: It will be interesting to see how this season pans out in the mid-field with new regulations and an 11th team joining the grid once again. However, I think Racing Bulls will take the title best of the rest. Their 2025 season was overall quite positive, with Hadjar taking home a podium finish and Liam Lawson also having the best results in his career so far. With the addition of Arvid Lindblad — another driver to keep an eye on this year — and a new engine powered by Ford, I think RB could be on their way to another solid result this year.
What will be the most exciting storyline this year?
MS: I think the most exciting narrative this year will be the new regulations themselves. How they compare to previous years, overtaking efficiency in this new era, the engines’ performance and reliability across the season as well as the tightly-fought development race between teams will all be fascinating to follow.
JS: I predict there will be a fight for the Drivers’ Championship involving Verstappen, Russell and Leclerc. It goes without saying that this will be incredible to watch. I also think watching Fernando Alonso and Hamilton will be special, as it could be their final seasons.
BH: 2026 might actually be Ferrari’s year. I don’t want to jinx anything but the rotating rear wing is a very clever trick, and if their testing innovativeness and reliability is somewhat of an indicator for the rest of the season, Ferrari will be fighting for wins regularly. Will the Tifosi’s patience finally be rewarded?
MM: With Audi joining the F1 ranks for the first time and an all new American outfit joining the grid, I think the dawn of the newcomers will be incredibly exciting to watch. It’s been some time since big names in motorsport have joined the grid so there’s no telling what heights they might soar to or the lows they might be forced to endure as they compete at the pinnacle of motorsport.
PJ: If it becomes apparent that Ferrari may be able to challenge for one or both titles this year, I think that unquestionably will be the story to follow throughout 2026. However, if Aston Martin’s trials and tribulations continue, I expect that to be a fascinating subplot.
CB: I’m looking forward to seeing how Cadillac performs this year as the team makes its F1 debut. With two highly experienced drivers in Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas, it will be intriguing to see what they can do for the team in their first year. The pressure will be put onto the drivers considering their previous experience, and I think the progress will make for an exciting watch.
