How Rafael Câmara could win the F3 championship in Hungary

Written by Morgan Holiday

Credit: Formula 3

The largest points gap between any two drivers in the Formula 3 standings is the one between championship leader Rafael Câmara and second-placed Nikola Tsolov.

With just three races left in the season, the Feature Race in Hungary and then the final round in Monza, here’s how the championship could be wrapped up this weekend.

How Câmara could clinch the title tomorrow

Tsolov is currently 31 points behind Câmara with 98 points to the leader’s 129.

With a maximum of 39 points available on any given weekend, Câmara will need to outscore Tsolov by nine points in the Hungary Feature Race in order to win the championship before Monza.

A win in any respect will clinch the title for Câmara, who will be starting from pole position with a good chance at securing that win. If he wins the race, no matter where Tsolov finishes he will be unable to make up the gap. 

If Câmara finishes second in the race, he’ll have a total of 147 points (or 148 if he also gets the fastest lap), which would put him 49 points ahead of Tsolov. Therefore, Tsolov would need to finish at least fifth in the race to remain within title contention (or fourth if Câmara has the fastest lap).

If Câmara finishes third, he’ll have a total of 144 points (145 with fastest lap), which would put him 46 points ahead of Tsolov. In that case, Tsolov would need to finish at least sixth to remain in contention.

If Câmara finishes fourth, he’ll have a total of 141 points (or, say it with me, 142 with fastest lap), which would put him 43 points ahead of Tsolov. That would mean that Tsolov would need to finish eighth (or seventh if Câmara has the fastest lap) in order to remain in contention.

If Câmara finishes fifth, he’ll have a total of 139 (or 140 with fastest lap) points. That would bring him 41 points ahead of Tsolov, who would need to finish ninth (or eighth if Câmara has the fastest lap) to remain in contention.

If Câmara finishes sixth his points total will jump to 137, exactly 39 points ahead of Tsolov. In this case he would need the fastest lap to clinch the title, even if Tsolov scores no points.

Seventh or below gives Câmara no chance at sealing the title, as Tsolov could finish outside the points and still be within the 39 point gap to him.

The bottom line is that Câmara will need to out-score Tsolov tomorrow by seven points.

With Tsolov starting tomorrow’s Feature Race from 21st, all it will take for Câmara tomorrow is a clean race with a top five finish in order to knock Tsolov out of contention, unless the Bulgarian driver can somehow make up over ten places to get into the points positions.

Other possibilities

While less likely, there are a few other drivers still mathematically in championship contention that Câmara will need to outscore as well as Tsolov to officially clinch the title.

Tim Tramnitz sits third in the championship, and Câmara will need to out-score him by just two points in order to grab the title. If Câmara finishes ninth or higher (or tenth with fastest lap) and Tramnitz (starting 16th) stays outside of the points, he drops out of contention.

If Tramnitz scores points, Câmara will need to finish at least eighth and ahead of him to out-score him by at least two points.

The other drivers in contention are Mari Boya, Martinius Stenshorne and Noah Strømsted. Of those three, Boya is the biggest threat starting in second place. The gap between the two drivers is currently 40 points, so Boya needs to gain at least two points on Câmara to still be in contention. If Boya overtakes Câmara in the race and finishes ahead of him in the points-positions, he'll just need to finish eighth or above. If Câmara doesn't score points, Boya can finish ninth and stay in contention.

Stenshorne and Strømsted need to gain 11 or 18 points on Câmara respectively, meaning either one would have to finish in the top four without Câmara scoring points to remain in contention.

No matter the outcome, tomorrow’s Feature Race will be one to watch with the title on the line for these two drivers.