The Silver Arrows sparring, McLaren vs Ferrari and more: What to expect in the Japanese Grand Prix
- Meghana Sree
- 9 minutes ago
- 4 min read
The Mercedes pair will go head-to-head for the win once more, while Oscar Piastri is chasing McLaren’s first podium of the season against the threat of both Ferrari drivers. Here’s everything to look out for in the 2026 Formula One Japanese Grand Prix.
The Japanese Grand Prix is right around the corner, and with the Mercedes pair once again proving dominant with yet another front-row lockout, the main story of tomorrow will be if Kimi Antonelli can manage to fend off George Russell for another weekend to add a second win to his tally. Significantly, if he wins tomorrow, the Italian teenager will seize the championship lead from Russell.
After struggling with his car set-up, Russell once again opened the door to Antonelli to clinch pole. Meanwhile, Oscar Piastri seems to be on better footing this round, and will hope he can finally record a successful race start from third on the grid.
With this being the last time we’ll have cars on track until May, here are five important things to look out for in the Japanese Grand Prix.
George Russell vs Kimi Antonelli for the win — and championship lead
A recurring story this year is the two Mercedes drivers battling it out at the top. While China’s race saw Antonelli get the better of Russell, the more experienced Briton will be eager to visit the top step once more and maintain his grasp of the championship lead.
This round, Antonelli has been in perfect form, topping FP3 and snatching pole by a decent margin, having the upper hand over Russell for much of the weekend while Russell struggled with a lack of rear grip.
With Russell’s discomfort with his set-up likely to continue into the race, Antonelli might have it easier keeping the lead of the race, but will still be cautious of a determined Russell.
Antonelli has the chance to inherit the championship lead if he secures a second consecutive victory, something Russell will be intent on mitigating off the line tomorrow.
Piastri chasing McLaren’s first 2026 podium
Piastri has had a nightmare start to the 2026 season. Crashing out on the formation lap at his home round in Australia and being wheeled off the grid in China to record a second DNS in a row, Piastri is yet to even start a Grand Prix this season.
McLaren in general have been struggling, with Lando Norris also facing a DNS in China and currently, being plagued with reliability issues throughout the Japanese weekend.
Piastri meanwhile seems to have gotten back into the rhythm in Suzuka, topping FP2 and securing a second-row start for the Grand Prix.
The Australian has a good shot for his team’s first podium of the season, however, the first task will be to hold the line against the two Ferraris behind him, if he can hopefully start the race at all.
Ferrari ready to pounce on the McLarens
Charles Leclerc lines up fourth, while Lewis Hamilton will start from sixth behind Norris. With both Ferrari drivers tucked right behind the Papaya pair, and the advantage of having rapid launches off the grid, Leclerc and Hamilton will be eager to clear the McLarens at the start.
Whether they can challenge the Mercedes duo will depend on how quickly they clear Piastri and Norris. With Russell on the backfoot this weekend compared to Antonelli and the MCL40’s full-distance race pace under Piastri yet to be witnessed, Ferrari will hope for opportunities to secure a double podium in Japan.
Furthermore, McLaren have suffered more reliability issues than the Scuderia thus far, and should they be inhibited once more tomorrow, Ferrari will be keen to swoop in and capitalise.
Will Red Bull’s struggles continue?
It seems preposterous to consider Red Bull a mid-field team given their overwhelming dominance in the recent past, but that seems to be effectively what they are this season at the start of a new regulatory era with a brand new power unit partner in Ford.
Max Verstappen’s sixth in Australia has been the team’s best result so far, with Isack Hadjar’s personal best being eighth in China, where Verstappen retired due to reliability issues.
Japan hasn’t proved much better for the Milton Keynes outfit, with Verstappen knocked out by the junior team rookie Arvid Lindblad in Q2, and Hadjar only managing to qualify eighth.
The team have been outqualified by Alpine's Pierre Gasly for a second consecutive round, and have been battling for positions with the French driver and the Haas pair across the opening rounds. Whether they can bounce back in Japan is doubtful, with Verstappen cutting a desolate figure in the media pen following qualifying.
“Just sliding a lot but also at the same time not having the rotation mid-corner everywhere, so that makes it quite a complicated balance. It's not ideal around here,” Verstappen commented on his Saturday in Suzuka.
He concluded, stating: “I think we have bigger problems than what we had last year. Some parts of the car at the moment are not working how we want them to work."
Bearman on the hunt
One of the other shocks of qualifying was Oliver Bearman’s Q1 exit. While not entirely out of the realm of possibilities for Haas, Bearman’s perfect consistency from late last season till this point has impressed many in the paddock, rendering his early knockout something of a surprise.
After failing to set a tidy lap on his final Q1 run, the Haas driver finds himself lining up 18th for the race tomorrow. Bearman has proven that he’s unafraid to scythe through the field to make up positions, expertly going wheel-to-wheel with more experienced drivers on the grid to steadily collect points that now see him fifth in the Drivers’ Championship.
Practice showed that Haas has more performance to unleash, as Bearman will be intent on recovering to the points to secure three consecutive points finishes spanning the opening three races.
